Henry Hamman in Miami

As the Bush administration prepares its response to the crackdown on Cuba's
dissident movement and Havana's execution of three ferry hijackers, the political
stakes have risen.

Florida's 27 electoral votes look increasingly vital to President George W. Bush's
second-term victory strategy, and he will need the support of Cuban-American
voters to secure them.

Cubans make up 7 per cent of Florida's electorate, but vote in disproportionately
high numbers. With many analysts already slotting New York and California in
the Democratic camp for 2004, Florida's electoral votes may be just as crucial in
2004 as they were in 2000, when the official margin of victory for Mr Bush was
just 537 votes.

"The Republicans will do just about anything to keep the Hispanic vote in Florida,"
says Susan MacManus, an expert on Florida politics at the University of South
Florida.

Even before Fidel Castro's crackdown, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Cuban-American
Republican congresswoman from Miami, wrote to Mr Bush reminding him that
"during the 2000 presidential campaign, my colleagues and I were promised a
bottom-up review of US-Cuba policy". Her letter contained a list of policy
demands.

Many Cuban-American administration officials now influence US policy towards
Cuba, among them Mel Mart�nez, housing and urban development
secretary, Emilio Gonzalez of the National Security Council, and Otto Reich, the
White House adviser and former assistant secretary of state.

Recently, some Floridians have focused on reports that the Bush administration
might ban cash remittances to family in Cuba. Miami's Cuban-Americans are
split over the ban. Backers say Mr Castro's economy depends on money from
Miami - its biggest source of foreign exchange - and that cutting the cash will
hasten his end. Opponents counter that a ban would chiefly hurt relatives in
Cuba.

Jaime Suchlicki, director of the University of Miami's Center for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies, warns that Mr Castro could retaliate toacash ban by
unleashing uncontrolled migration on south Florida.

Washington has warned Mr Castro that such a crisis would be considered an act
of aggression. But turning back boats full of refugees is politically risky, says Mr
Suchlicki. Speaking privately, some Cuba hardliners in the administration
discourage speculation on a remittance ban.

Another option is improving TV Mart�, the propaganda network aimed
at - but currently jammed in - Havana. On May 20 last year - Cuban
Independence Day - Mr Bush told a cheering rally in Miami that he would
"modernise" TV Mart�, possibly by broadcasting to Cuba using a
specially outfitted cargo aircraft.

Last week Jos� Basulto, head of Brothers to the Rescue - the
Miami-based group that became famous in 1996 when two of its reconnaissance
aircraft were shot down by Cuban MiGs - attached a 20-watt television
transmitter toasingle-engine aircraft and broadcast into Havana. His effort may
come across as a direct challenge to hold the White House to its promise to
upgrade TV Mart�.

Whatever their policy views, many Cuban-Americans see the anniversary of Mr
Bush's Miami speech as the time to collect the political reward for their support
for brother Jeb and for President Bush to make a political downpayment for
Cuban-American support in the 2004 presidential race.

The brothers are said to discuss Cuba policy frequently. Jeb Bush, who is popular
among his Cuban-American constituents, called regime change in Havana "the
only way to bring freedom and democracy to the country". He said the US and
Florida "have plans in place to deal with a mass exodus from Cuba".

The president is also keeping an eye on two Florida Democrats who are popular
among Cuban-Americans. Bob Graham, a Florida senator, is running for
president next year. Though considered a long shot, many regard him as a strong
running-mate for the eventual nominee. Alex Penelas, mayor of Miami, is raising
funds for a run at Mr Graham's Senate seat.

One Cuban-American lobbyist acknowledged the power Cuban-Americans held
over Washington political operatives. "Cuba isn't a foreign policy issue," he said.
"It's domestic."