CNN
September 18, 2000

Cuba sanctions to go under microscope at trade agency hearing

                 WASHINGTON (AP) -- With momentum growing in the U.S. Congress to ease
                 the Cuba embargo, advocates on both sides will make their cases Tuesday in one
                 of the biggest official debates on the 38-year-old sanctions.

                 The planned hearing is part of an International Trade Commission study that
                 some Cuba experts describe as the most comprehensive effort by a federal
                 agency to determine how the embargo has affected the Cuban and U.S.
                 economies. The commission is an independent, nonpartisan agency.

                 "You could almost say this is going to be the
                 Woodstock of the Cuba issue," John Kavulich,
                 president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic
                 Council, said of the large anticipated crowd. "But
                 in Woodstock, there were mostly people of like
                 minds."

                 The large number of participants -- 36 as of
                 Monday -- prompted commissioners to add a
                 second day of hearings

                 "There have been some congressional hearings
                 with long witness lists, but this is something else,"
                 said Philip Peters, vice president of the Lexington
                 Institute, a think tank.

                 The commission study was requested by the House Ways and Means Committee
                 in March. A final report, due February 15, won't make recommendations about
                 whether the sanctions should be lifted. But that won't stop both embargo
                 supporters and opponents from facing-off at the hearing.

                 Among those participating: Cuban exile groups that favor sanctions to pressure
                 Fidel Castro's government, humanitarian groups that say the sanctions hurt
                 innocent people, businesses and agricultural groups that believe they would
                 benefit from trade with Cuba and others that believe they would be hurt.

                 Cuba has been receiving renewed attention with some farm-state Republicans
                 joining liberal Democrats in favor of easing restrictions on the sale of food and
                 medicine.

                 The Cuban exile movement, which favors maintaining the sanctions, was
                 weakened following the battle over Elian Gonzalez, the young castaway who
                 returned to Cuba after a long dispute between his father and his Florida relatives.

                 Also, the debate over permanently normalizing trade with China has made some
                 lawmakers take a new look at Cuba.

                 Concerns that sanctions could be eased have "galvanized" embargo supporters,
                 said Dennis K. Hays, executive vice president of the Cuban-American National
                 Foundation.

                 "It's no longer possible to sit on the sidelines," he said.

                 Some advocates of the embargo are skeptical about the study's importance,
                 noting that it was requested by an opponent of the sanctions, Rep. Charles Rangel
                 of New York. They question the study's ability to gauge how the United States
                 and Cuba would be affected if the embargo were lifted.

                 "It's very difficult to quantify the impact of what you (are) not making," said Otto
                 Reich, an international business consultant and former ambassador to Venezuela.

                 But other analysts see the report as unique, given the commission's objectivity
                 and independence. Two commission economists visited Cuba in July, meeting
                 with government officials. They are also conducting a survey of U.S. businesses
                 and trade organizations.

                 Peters said the commission's report could be influential, given the depth of its
                 research and its objectivity

                 "They are authoritative. They don't have a dog in this fight," he said. "They have
                 tremendous resources, so they are going to be able to do a pretty thorough look
                 at the impact of the sanctions and the potential trade that could flow."