The Washington Times
July 11, 2004


FORUM: Bush right on remittances, travel to Cuba


I take strong exception to the comment published in last Sunday's Forum. The measures enacted by the Bush administration generated a bitter Castro reaction. Nobody who knows Fidel Castro's record thinks he is one bit concerned about the Cuban family. That is nonsense. He is complaining because those measures affect him.
    On June 8, 2004, The communist newspaper Granma carried an unsigned message, evidently written by Mr. Castro himself, which complained about the impact of these measures and related them to the revelations during in a Senate Banking Committee hearing on May 2 that Cuba had laundered $3.9 billion at the Swiss bank UBS.
    During the hearing, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed UBS was fined $100 million for violating the agreement itsigned to manage a deposit for the exchange of new banknotes. Not only had UBS failed to live up to the terms of the agreement that forbade using the deposit for transactions with countries subject to U.S. sanctions, but it had sent false reports over seven years to hide its actions.
    In linking the Bush measures toward Cuba with the New York Fed actions, the Castro regime revealed its real fears. Cuba was depositing old banknotes in UBS as part of a money laundering scheme that depended precisely on the so-called mulas, as well as yachts and planes, carrying currency to Cuba from the drug traffic. The drug traffic generates up to $100 billion a year in banknotes and the capos pay from 25 percent to 28 percent discounts to convert those banknotes into legitimate money.
    For years, the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, and more recently the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), had fed the myth Cuban-Americans were sending up to $1.2 billion a year to relatives in Cuba. This is mathematically and politically impossible.
    It is the IADB that has raised the issue of the mulas as the favored means of remittance delivery. In their computations, they estimate that as many as 4,000 mulas make 20 trips each year from Miami to Cuba carrying $10,000 in each trip to attain a total of $800 million, which added to their estimates of other delivery methods permit them to arrive at a total of $1.194 billion for 2003. This estimate assumes 80,000 trips a year out of Miami carrying illegal currency to Cuba.
    Most likely, a smaller number of remittance mulas are tolerated by Mr. Castro merely to provide cover for the drug money laundering ones.
    The FBI and the Home Security Department must be asleep at the wheel for this intense traffic between Miami and Havana to remain undetected. Remember that Cuba is in the State Department list of terrorist states?
    To reach such a level of remittances, it would be necessary for 400,000 Cuban-American households to remit $3,000 a year or whatever combination you want to make. However, that ignores the fact that according to the U.S. 2000 Census there were only 474,000 Cuban-American households. That is, to reach such a total 80 percent of them would have to remit an amount more than twice what is allowed by the law.
    Since the majority of exiles came several decades ago, most have all their families here and send little or nothing to Cuba. Since in 1990 there were 392,000 households reported in the Census, new arrivals in the last decade, who are likelier to have family links with Cuba, added only 82,000 households.
    On the Cuban side, the political feasibility of Mr. Castro allowing 400,000 households of relatives of "gusanos" (worms, the label applied by the regime tothose who migrate) to enjoy such incomes is very unlikely. At official exchange rates, $3,000is equal to 78,000 Cuban pesos. This is a substantially higher income than that of a medical doctor, about 3,000 pesos a year, a hospital director's 6,000 or a policeman who makes 7,200. Those loyal to the regime would resent seeing so many families of the revolution's enemies enjoying such outrageous incomes. Mr. Castro cannot afford to antagonize those who support him to that extent.
    Ironically, Paolo Spadoni, the author of the piece responded to here, seems the intellectual author of the measures he now criticizes. Last year he presented a paper at the Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE), in which he proposed as one option for U.S. decision-makers "to strengthen current restrictions on travel and remittances by significantly reducing the number of U.S. citizens authorized to visit the island and the amount of money the Cuban-Americans can send legally to their families. While such a policy may be unpopular and quite expensive to implement, it makes no sense to make exceptions for a specific group of U.S. citizens that channel into Cuba more hard currency than any other group."
    Well, Paolo, what are you complaining about? Apparently, President Bush listened to you. Or, are you a Kerry flip-flopper?
    
    ERNESTO F. BETANCOURT
    Bethesda, Md.