Expectations are limited for ex-president's visit

  BY NANCY SAN MARTIN

  When he arrives in Havana today, Jimmy Carter will become the most prominent American to visit Cuba since Fidel Castro seized power more than 40
  years ago -- but if history is any guide, Castro is unlikely to make any major concessions.

  For one thing, recent U.S. government charges that Cuba is involved in the production of biological warfare agents have produced yet another downturn
  in relations between Washington and Havana.

  Also, as many leaders in Miami's Cuban-American community assert, Castro has previously managed to manipulate visits by numerous international
  leaders, including Pope John Paul II, for his own benefit.

  Although the pope made modest gains for the church, he, too, failed to make any apparent progress in bringing about democratic change on the island.

  Even so, Carter's admirers say he has the character and the track record to produce a measure of reconciliation between the United States and Cuba --
  an achievement that has eluded the 10 U.S. presidents who have held the White House during Castro's tenure.

  ''This is the culmination of something that he's wanted to do for a very long time,'' said Douglas Brinkley, who wrote a book on Carter's deeds in and out
  of office. ``He's comfortable with outlaw figures. He feels that if you look at someone eyeball-to-eyeball, maybe you can get concessions.''

  Carter's record on Cuba during his single term as president from 1977 to 1981 is mixed.

  On the side of improvement, Carter, a Democrat, is credited with establishing communication between Havana and Washington by setting up offices
  known as interests sections in both capitals. Those offices continue to serve as diplomatic liaisons between the longest-feuding nations in the Western
  Hemisphere.

  As president, Carter had a direct line to Havana from the White House. And after his term, he continued to hold private conversations with Castro to
  discuss the state of U.S.-Cuban relations.

  TRAVEL OPENED UP

  His administration also eliminated restrictions on American travel to Cuba, and allowed Cuban exiles for the first time to visit relatives on the island and
  send them money. He also promoted talks between Cuban Americans and Cuban officials that resulted in the release of more than 3,000 political
  prisoners -- the result of extended clandestine trips by U.S. intermediaries that continued beyond Carter's term.

  Though organizers of the visit have said that Carter does not intend to negotiate anything with Castro, and doesn't expect any immediate changes in
  policy, supporters hope it can start a process that would improve relations between the two countries.

  ''I pray they will understand each other and come up with something,'' said Bernardo Benes, who served as an intermediary between Washington and
  Havana during the Carter years. ``I have confidence that [Carter] will do something good.''

  But there were setbacks as well during Carter's term. Time and again, Carter's efforts were mired in controversy that stalled any real advancement in
  relations, no matter how hard the president seemed to try.

  Among the problems was Cuba's participation in the war in Angola, which was widely seen as undermining U.S. interests in Africa in the name of
  communist solidarity.

  When U.S. intelligence reports in 1979 detected the presence of Soviet troops on the island, what little progress in relations had been made was quickly
  undone.

  But the launching of the 1980 Mariel boatlift -- the largest mass exodus by sea from Cuba to the United States -- proved to be a debacle for U.S.-Cuban
  relations, and for Carter's political standing. The episode, coupled with the Iranian hostage crisis, helped perpetuate Carter's image as a weak and
  indecisive president.

  The timing of this visit does not bode well either. He is traveling to Havana following accusations by the Bush administration that Cuba is involved in
  developing and transferring technology that could be used for weapons of mass destruction. And his return Friday will be followed by a planned trip to
  Miami by President Bush, who is expected to unveil a toughened U.S. policy toward Cuba soon.

  ''Carter is going to create a real firestorm of debate,'' Brinkley said. ``He has to walk on minefields. Everywhere he goes on this trip has the potential for
  an explosion.''

  'NOBLE' INTENTION

  Longtime Miami exile leader José Ignacio Rasco, who has previously consulted with Carter about Cuba, said: ``This is a polemic visit, but Carter's
  intention could not be any more noble. He is a truly democratic leader who is concerned about countries caught in the throes of tyranny.''

  During the five-day trip, Carter is scheduled to dine with Castro at least twice and meet with other senior Cuban officials.

  He and his wife, Rosalynn, will stay at a small hotel in the rehabilitated section of Old Havana, where they will no doubt be reminded of more youthful
  years. The couple went on a short vacation to Havana in 1955, before Castro seized power, and those who know the Carters said they are eager ``to
  see what's happened under the revolution.''

  The Carters are traveling with their son Chip, 52, and five staff members of the Carter Center, as well as Robert Pastor, the president's longtime advisor
  to the region. They will tour health facilities, schools, an agricultural production cooperative, and the biotech institute accused of developing the
  potentially destructive warfare technology.

  Carter also will meet briefly with Vicki Huddleston, chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana.

  ''I think that President Carter's visit will be judged by history on whether or not it quickens the pace toward democratic change,'' Huddleston said through
  a spokesman. ``So I will convey to him the views as best as I understand them, of human rights activists and religious leaders, who very much want
  greater freedom for the individual and an opening that will allow civil society to grow and prosper.''

  The most prominent events will take place Tuesday, when a Carter speech will be transmitted live on Cuban television, and Thursday, when Carter is
  scheduled to meet with religious groups and human rights organizations critical of Castro's government. The trip will end with a morning press conference
  Friday before Carter boards a flight back to Atlanta.

  Castro invited Carter to Cuba when the two men served as honorary pallbearers at the funeral of former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau in
  October 2000. Castro has not said why he sought out Carter, but he has stated publicly that the former president is free to make all the criticisms he
  wants to.''

  Alfredo Duran, who participated in briefings with Carter in 1995 and again this year, said one of the positive elements of this encounter is that ``this
  time, it is the Cuban government that is seeking it.''