Andres Oppenheimer

  MADRID - Former President Jimmy Carter's historic speech in Cuba supporting a referendum on the island's political future is likely to generate a wave of
  diplomatic support from European and Latin American countries for the island's fledgling opposition movement.

  Several presidents and foreign ministers participating at a 48-country European-Latin American summit here this weekend were clearly excited about
  Carter's 20-minute televised address to the Cuban people last week.

  The speech allowed millions of Cubans to learn for the first time about an 11,020-signature petition by the island's opposition to hold a referendum on
  whether Cubans should enjoy freedom of speech and free elections.

  Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Pique -- who is also serving as head of the 15-member European Union council of foreign ministers -- told me in an
  interview that he will propose -- in coming days -- a formal European Union declaration in support of the proposed referendum, which is known in Cuba as
  the Varela Project.

  ''We see the Varela Project as a very interesting political project, which deserves our support and our sympathy,'' Pique said. ``We will have to discuss
  this with the other EU member countries, but we believe the Varela Project deserves an extra show of support.''

  Mexican President Vicente Fox and Chilean President Ricardo Lagos, two of the most influential leaders in an area where several other presidents are
  overwhelmed by economic and political troubles, also expressed interest in the internal opposition's peaceful effort to change the totalitarian system from
  within.

  ''We will have to see how the situation evolves, and act accordingly,'' Lagos told me in a separate interview. 'It's hard to offer your support when you are
  not asked to do so, because it could be interpreted as an intrusion. But we can say, `Look, we are at your disposal if we can be of any help.' ''

  The Carter speech, which apparently was not expected by the Cuban regime to speak as openly about the Varela Project as it did, marked the first time
  in four decades that the Cuban people could hear through the state-controlled media about a peaceful roadmap for democracy.

  The dissidents presented the signatures to the National Assembly on May 10, two days before Carter's arrival in Havana. Under Cuba's law, citizens can
  ask for a referendum if more than 10,000 people sign a petition to that effect. But because of fear or lack of information, it was the first such effort.

  By publicly supporting the petition drive and drawing world attention to it, Carter may have paved the way for an unprecedented international drive in
  support of Cuba's opposition.

  Why? Because until now, Cuba's president for life Fidel Castro had managed to convince many countries that the Cuban conflict was with the United
  States, or with Miami Cuban exiles, rather than with his own people. The Varela Project, by contrast, puts the spotlight on Castro's denial of fundamental
  freedoms to peaceful oppositionists, who are willing to seek political changes through the island's Socialist laws.

  ''This changes the conflict from a U.S.-versus-Cuba issue, to a democracy-versus-dictatorship issue,'' says Carlos Alberto Montaner, a Madrid-based Cuban
  exile leader. ``It is bound to lead to joint measures by democratic countries to bring to an end the last communist dictatorship in the West.''

  In addition, the Varela Project petition is the first initiative of its kind that has the support of the Cuban internal opposition, a majority of Cuban exiles in
  Miami, the United States, Europe and most Latin American countries. A poll by Bendixen and Associates released last week showed that, in sharp contrast
  with their past opposition to a negotiated solution to the Cuban drama, 54 percent of Miami-Dade's Cuban exiles support the Varela Project.

  In the past, European and Latin American reservations to the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba -- and their active opposition to the U.S. Helms-Burton law
  that imposes sanctions on foreign companies that trade with Cuba -- had prevented the creation of an effective international front to push for
  fundamental freedoms in Cuba.

  This may change now, because most democratic countries agree on the Cuban opposition's right under Cuba's law to seek the referendum.

  Of course, the Castro regime will seek to discredit the Varela Project, saying that its organizers are puppets of the United States. But it so happens that
  most Cuban dissident leaders are against the U.S. embargo and many of them are former Communist Party members, which makes Castro's claims
  difficult to take seriously.

  In fact, the Europeans and Latin Americans embraced these dissidents long before the United States.

  For the first time, I see a growing international consensus that the solution to Cuba's crisis has to come from within Cuba, has to be peaceful, and may
  finally have found in the Varela Project a concrete plan within the Cuban Constitution to make it happen.