LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

Question: President Bush's support is slipping among Cuban-American voters in the key electoral state of Florida, according to a recent poll. Does he risk losing Florida in this November's presidential election because of the White House's new restrictions on travel to Cuba?

Answer from Wayne Smith, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and a former chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana: President Bush may have strong reason to regret going along with the recommendation of his Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba to limit the visits of Cuban-Americans to their families on the island to once every three years. To close-knit Cuban families, this seems unnecessarily cruel and thoughtless. There is not even a provision for emergency visits. If your mother is dying but you visited her only last year, tough luck. You can visit her grave in two more years. . . .A loss for Bush of 20-25 percent of the Cuban-American votes might well be enough to put Kerry over the top in Florida.

From Dennis Hays, managing director of the Global and Government Affairs Practice at Tew Cardenas LLP: President Bush always has, and always will, enjoy strong support among Cuban-American voters. This support has grown over time and flows from a shared vision -- a vision of an independent and democratic Cuba, free of the stultifying grip of Castro and his regime. President Bush, more than any of his predecessors, is committed to hastening the day when Cuban citizens can live in a country that respects their rights as individuals and rewards entrepreneurship. . . . Pundits who look for divisions within the community confuse a healthy debate over fine-tuning tactics with an unwavering commitment to the final goal.

From Dan Erikson, director of Caribbean Projects at the Inter-American Dialogue: Unlikely though it seems, the hidden dynamic of the 2004 presidential race is that Cuba may trump Iraq as the most decisive foreign policy issue in November. President Bush and John Kerry have very different views on the future directions of Cuba policy, while their proposals for Iraq are becoming increasingly convergent. Most importantly, of course, Cuba policy has a distinct impact on Florida's 27 electoral votes, whereas the political resonance of Iraq policy is more widespread but electorally diffuse. Thus, Bush's effort to crack down on Cuban-American travel and remittances may have been a bigger gamble than he realized.

From Lisandro Perez, professor of sociology at Florida International University: The restrictions on family visits and remittances were arrived at by consulting only with a limited sector of the Cuban-American community. The measures have met with opposition by many. Consequently, the Cuban-American vote may be split in the November election.

Portions of Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor run each Wednesday and Saturday.