BY BRENDAN M. CASE AND LAURENCE ILIFF
 The Dallas Morning News

 MEXICO CITY -- After five years of trying to get its economic house in order,
 Mexico is enjoying booming exports, falling inflation and strong growth. But a new
 national poll shows most Mexicans are bracing for an economic crisis during the
 2000 presidential election year.

 The survey, sponsored by The Dallas Morning News and conducted by MUND
 Opinion Services, portrays a nation struggling to make ends meet and deeply
 skeptical of President Ernesto Zedillo's promise to break a 25-year cycle in which
 outgoing presidents spark economic downturns.

 Despite the economy's robust health, analysts warn that Mexicans' pessimistic
 attitudes could help create a self-fulfilling prophecy, putting pressure on the
 overvalued peso and soaring stock market.

 ``Old habits die hard, even if the perception that we're about to have a crisis
 doesn't square with the facts,'' said Salvador Kalifa, director of the Center for
 Economic Analysis and Diffusion in the northern city of Monterrey.

 Previous crises have damaged more than the economy and Mexicans' standard of
 living. They have also slowed the country's political development, creating
 disillusionment and uncertainty over the benefits of greater democracy, analysts
 say.

 A DIFFICULT TASK

 Halting the boom-bust cycle would not only convince Mexicans that periodic
 crises are avoidable as a result of good government, but would also reassure
 international investors.

 ``It would be a big step forward for the entire nation if we avoid another crisis in the
 presidential election year,'' said Jose Antonio Crespo, a political analyst.

 It will be a difficult task.

 In the national poll, 58 percent of those surveyed said they expect ``there will be
 an economic crisis next year like the one in 1994.'' That crisis slashed the peso's
 value and provoked the worst recession in 60 years. Millions lost their jobs or
 were pushed into poverty.

 ``You hope there won't be a crisis, but you act as if there will be,'' said Jose Luis
 Mercado Yanez, 39, a Mexico City taxi driver who participated in the poll.

 To be sure, economists and government officials say fears of a crisis are
 overblown.

 The economy is as healthy as it's been in years. Mexico's short-term debt is
 small and its dollar reserves are worth $30 billion, one of the highest levels ever.
 Its key trading partner, the United States, is growing.

 Moreover, the peso floats freely instead of trading within a narrow band, helping to
 reduce the risk of a sudden, traumatic devaluation, such as the one in 1994.

 CRISIS WOULD COME FROM POLITICS

 ``If people are thinking only in economic terms, the probability of a crisis next
 year is almost nil,'' Kalifa said. ``If they are expecting a political environment as
 bad as in 1994, with assassinations, kidnappings and rebel uprisings, that's
 another thing.

 ``If there is a crisis, it will come from politics, not economics,'' he said.

 It would be tough to repeat 1994.

 The year began with the Jan. 1 rebel uprising in Chiapas, followed by the
 assassination of ruling party presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio in
 March. The party's No. 2 official was murdered in September. Investors pulled out,
 the peso plunged and only a huge U.S.-led bailout saved Mexico from meltdown.

 The crises that began in 1976 have generally started with peso devaluations,
 typically sparked by economic problems such as falling oil prices or too much
 debt. The pattern is ingrained in the minds of most Mexicans.

 ``I think there will be another crisis next year; it's something that always
 happens,'' said Beatriz Mojica Guzman, 23, a homemaker in Acapulco. The
 Pacific Coast resort is only now returning to the level of tourism it enjoyed prior to
 1994, Mojica said.

 Acapulco's slow comeback underscores the lack of economic improvement
 around Mexico.

 `NUMBERS INDICATE STAGNATION'

 Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed said their families are worse off than in
 1994, and another 39 percent said their situation is the same. Only 21 percent
 said their families are better off than five years ago.

 ``Those numbers indicate stagnation,'' said Daniel Lund, the director of MUND
 Opinion Services. ``And stagnation in a poor country that's been beat up by a
 terrible crisis is bad news.''

 Women generally said they are worse off than men did; 54 percent of poor people
 said they are worse off than in 1994.

 People who say they are worse off are likely to vote for the opposition, the poll
 showed. The real battle will be for the 50 percent who say they have seen no
 change.

 ``The PRI is vulnerable as Carter was vulnerable in 1980,'' Lund said, referring to
 the election in which Ronald Reagan pounded Jimmy Carter with the slogan ``Are
 you better off than you were four years ago?''

 All three Mexican candidates have said the government's economic policy does
 not help ordinary people, although none have suggested concrete alternatives.

 There is a small bright spot in Mexicans' economic perceptions: free trade.

 Sixty-five percent of the people polled said Mexico benefited at least somewhat
 from the North American Free Trade Agreement, including 17 percent who said
 the country benefited a lot. Twenty-five percent said Mexico has seen no benefit,
 and 10 percent were undecided.

 Mexico's increasing economic closeness with the United States has brought
 greater competition and put hundreds of inefficient companies out of business.
 But it has also sparked billions of dollars of investment in nearly all sectors of the
 economy.

 That has helped turn small provincial towns such as Teziutlan, in the mountains of
 Puebla state, into job machines. Cut-and-sew plants in Teziutlan now churn out
 jeans and shirts for companies such as J.C. Penney, Kmart and V.F. Corp.,
 which makes Lee jeans.

 ``A lot of new factories have opened in the last few years,'' said Guillermina
 Sanchez Vera, 57. ``There's hardly any crime because there are so many jobs.''

                     Copyright 1999 Miami Herald