But even if talks on workers reopen, some say deal may be far off

By ALFREDO CORCHADO and RICARDO SANDOVAL / The Dallas Morning News

MEXICO CITY – U.S. and Mexican officials will attempt to reset the clock this week on negotiations over a binational agreement on migration.

Since last spring, there have been no substantive talks between high-ranking officials on a prospective agreement that would legalize the status of millions of Mexicans
living and working in the United States and regulate the flow of future migrants.

Mexican officials expressed high hopes that such talks can be rescheduled during meetings Monday and Tuesday, although the United States continues to be
preoccupied with Iraq and the war on terrorism.

Despite the optimism on the Mexican side, however, officials in Washington said that Mexico should not expect great movement anytime soon on a comprehensive
migration deal.

The migration issue "remains a priority for the administration and ... the president," a senior State Department official said. "But I think we also have to be realistic
politically about what can be done.

"Any far-ranging changes would have to be approved, would have to go through our Congress. So there wouldn't be too much point in ... overreaching ourselves on what
can be accomplished."

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and Attorney General John Aschroft – the point men on Mexican migration issues for President Bush – will lead the U.S.
delegation.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Jeffrey Davidow said some progress can be expected in this week's meetings.

"Is there going to be the whole enchilada?" he asked in a meeting with reporters at the InterAmerican Dialogue, a Washington think tank. "The answer is clearly 'no.'
But plenty of steps can be taken."

Changes, progress

The meetings may yield changes in U.S. immigration rules that, in effect, will move the two countries toward a reconstructed migration policy. U.S. officials are, for
example, considering expanding existing temporary guest-worker programs to restore a circular pattern of migration – Mexicans going north for short periods to work,
and then returning home.

Bush administration officials also support extending legal status to undocumented families of established Mexican immigrants.

"These are things that don't need a signing ceremony by the two presidents, but things that can have a real impact on the binational relationship," said a Fox
administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

This week's meetings are also expected to produce a $25 million initiative to speed up border crossings of goods and people, a border area housing program, and new
deals for joint fire fighting and air quality controls along the border.

But U.S. reticence on moving toward a comprehensive migration accord is generating frustration among some Mexican officials. In Mexico City, rumors are swirling
that Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castañeda will soon leave his post, in part because his attempts to rewrite the binational relationship have stalled.

"Let's just say he's very frustrated," said a Mexican Foreign Ministry official. "I will leave it at that."

'Not very helpful'

Mexican officials also privately expressed frustration with Mr. Ashcroft, whom they described as "not very helpful" on the migration issue.

"He is not convinced of President Bush's own philosophy," another Mexican Foreign Ministry official said. "Powell is more sympathetic but is simply too busy" on the
terrorism and Iraq fronts.

One U.S. Senate official suggested that Mexico's best hope on the migration talks is to deal with new Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza, former Texas railroad
commissioner. "He may end up being the bridge between both governments," the official said.

But the migration debate is likely to become more complicated, analysts said, because of a trade dispute that has begun casting a new shadow over a prospective
migration accord.

Even as Mr. Castañeda urged, in published interviews, a break from the Mexican tradition of mistrust of the United States, Mr. Fox was raising another point of
contention, complaining about U.S. farm subsidies, which he said were unfair to Mexican growers and would spark more migration.

Mr. Fox is concerned that U.S. farm assistance – worth $180 billion in the current U.S. federal budget – is an unfair advantage for farmers already endowed with an
overwhelming technological edge. The consequences, Mr. Fox has said, are bankrupt small farmers in the Mexican countryside.

Mexican farmers – suffering from depressed markets for their products – won't be able to compete against American farms once cross-border tariffs on most
agricultural products disappear next year under rules of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mr. Fox warned.

Mr. Fox's admonishments, first aired to Mr. Bush in a private meeting during last month's Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico,
presaged street protests last week in Mexico against NAFTA rules and poor Mexican government farm subsidies.

Nine people died in a bus crash that authorities said was indirectly caused by farmer protests that closed a major highway south of Mexico City.

The message from officials in Washington is that U.S. farm subsidies are not likely to diminish, and that the availability of low-cost U.S. farm products in Mexico is
helping to stabilize the Mexican economy.

U.S. agricultural officials are part of the American delegation to this week's binational meetings, where they're likely to face tough questions from their Mexican
counterparts on farm subsidies.

U.S. officials said they are hopeful that two days of productive talks this week in Mexico City will help the Bush administration convince Congress in 2003 that the time
is right for a comprehensive migration accord – something that would underscore a new, more cooperative relationship between the two countries and reflect the role of
the Mexican migrant workers in the U.S. economy.

"There is a growing, insatiable demand for Mexican workers, especially in the low-skill industries," said a State Department official.

After a friendly start with the arrival of Mr. Fox and Mr. Bush, relations between the United States and Mexico have become icy. There has been disagreement over
the migration talks, and this fall Mexico was steadfast in opposing a United Nations vote to give the United States a green light for unilateral military action against Iraq.

"There was a sense that everything between the United States and Mexico was going to be different," at the beginning of the Fox and Bush administrations, Mr.
Davidow said. "I think that was overstated."

But even critics of the state of U.S.-Mexico relations said the relationship has indeed changed since 2000.

The brightest example is the binational fight against illegal drug trafficking, with Mexico scoring impressive arrests of major drug cartel leaders such as Benjamin
Arellano Felix. And despite recurring rancor over trade issues and American farm subsidies, economic exchange between the neighbors has risen to $260 billion.

"Overall, in a relationship marked by years of peaks and valleys, "We are going through a slight valley ... but it's not as deep as others," Mr. Davidow said.