South Florida Sun-Sentinel
February 19, 2004

U.S. officials debating whether to help show Aristide the door

By SONYA ROSS
Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- Secretary of State Colin Powell said Thursday the United States and other countries will offer a proposal to Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide and opposition leaders for ending the political crisis in that county.

``I think if they will both accept this plan and start executing on it, we might find a way through this crisis politically,'' Powell said in an interview with ABC Radio's
``Live in America'' program.

Powell said there is a ``solid consensus'' on the Haitian issue among the United States, the Organization of American States, the United Nations, France and Canada. He
said the international community must do what it can to help Aristide in his capacity as Haiti's elected leader.

Powell gave no details of the plan except to say that it does not contemplate Aristide's stepping down before his term ends in Feb. 2006.

But he said the United States would not object if, as part of a negotiation with opposition leaders, Aristide agreed to leave ahead of schedule.

``He is the president for some time to come yet. You know, if an agreement is reached that moves that in another direction, that's fine,'' Powell said.

He reaffirmed that the United States is opposed to any solution that violates democratic or constitutional norms.

The United States helped Aristide claim his place as president a decade ago. But American officials have become disillusioned with his rule and are debating internally
what to do about it.

Publicly, the United States resists the notion of forcibly removing Aristide. Privately, the Bush administration is exploring options for helping foster a peaceful switch of
leaders in Haiti without undercutting democratic rule.

Aristide upped the ante Wednesday by turning aside one U.S. suggestion: early elections that could appease his political opponents. He wants to serve until his five-year
term expires in February 2006.

The United States has not clearly said it will refuse to recognize a successor to Aristide who takes over through coup or ouster, experts point out. Days ago, Powell had
said that a change in leadership in Haiti was not an option. He also said earlier that the United States was not inclined to intervene to help Aristide maintain a grip on
power.

One problem, many American officials say, is that there are few credible alternatives to Aristide in Haiti.

``It is no secret to say the Bush administration has no love for Aristide,'' said University of Virginia professor Robert Fatton Jr., an expert on Haiti. ``And that, to some
extent, really supported the growth of the opposition in Haiti. So what is the firm stand of the U.S. policy? Is it one that just looks at the situation deteriorate and hopes
the opposition will take over?''

Complicating Aristide's situation is the fact that many U.S. supporters who bolstered him in 1994 are rather circumspect about his plight now. Even the Rev. Jesse
Jackson, a driving force on Aristide's behalf in 1994, focused his appeals to the Bush administration on preserving democracy itself in Haiti, just as it has sought to do in
Afghanistan and Iraq.

There has been no collective pressure exerted by the Congressional Black Caucus, which leaned heavily on then-President Clinton to send troops to back up Aristide a
decade ago.

``There is a squeamishness among people who otherwise would be speaking out right now,'' said Bill Fletcher, director of TransAfrica Forum, a leading U.S. lobby for
Haiti.

In 1994, he said, Aristide was up against coup leaders who were ``pure and unadulterated evil.''

But since then, Aristide has had stilted relations with allies and has alienated much of his base amid charges of massive corruption.

The crisis has been brewing since Aristide's party swept flawed legislative elections in 2000. Donors froze millions in international aid at that point.

Another factor that hurts Aristide, according to administration officials, is his use of police and militants to terrorize political opponents. U.S. officials are concerned that
some of the very elements involved in the military overthrow that first bounced Aristide are now hiding out within his machinery _ and that of the opposition _ waiting
for opportunity.

That in itself makes it difficult to consider leaving Aristide in power, said James Morel, director of the Washington-based Haiti Democracy Project.

``He is ... a traditional Haitian president trying to keep a monopoly of power,'' Morel said. ``When you're in that mode, you can't keep agreements for providing domestic
opposition and the like.''

The administration, Morel said, ``should be greasing the skids for Aristide. They should be discussing with him where he could go. At the same time, they should throw
the support to the democratic (movement). If you don't do that, it's going to be the people with guns, whether inside the palace or outside the palace, who will prevail.''

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