Colombia rebels could prevail in talks

CNN October 24, 1998 Colombia rebels could prevail in talks

                  SAN VICENTE DEL CAGUAN, Colombia (AP) -- With government
                  troops packing up to make way for talks with rebels, this bustling
                  commercial center on the muddy Caguan River has declared itself a
                  "laboratory of peace."

                  Yet uncertainty surrounds the white flags of neutrality that hang across
                  town alongside Colombia's red-blue-and-yellow tricolor. Business is
                  hurting and some of the moreprosperous inhabitants, mostly ranchers,
                  are fleeing.

                  If all goes as planned, the more than 2,000 soldiers at the 36th Infantry
                  Battalion's garrison will be gone soon. Then, guerrillas of the Revolutionary
                  Armed Forces of Colombia will come to San Vicente, the largest town in a
                  huge expanse of steamy savannah and rugged mountains.

                  President Andres Pastrana has ordered the army to withdraw by November 7 from an
                  area the size of Switzerland to assure rebel negotiators of their safety. He says the
                  pullout will last at least 90 days.

It is yet unclear whether the peace talks will be held in San Vicente, which
apparently is the guerrillas' wish.

                  But no one doubts the Western Hemisphere's oldest and largest rebel band,
                  known by its Spanish initials FARC, will openly assert the control it has long
                  invisibly exercised over this southern municipality of 45,000 people at the
                  foot of Colombia's eastern cordillera -- mountain chain.

Guerrillas hold bargaining chips

                  As Pastrana's two-month-old government and the 34-year-old FARC
                  prepare for talks, the scales are tipped far in favor of the guerrillas. At their
                  strongest ever, the insurgents haven't lost a battle in nearly a decade and
                  hold at least 248 bargaining chips -- soldiers and police officers captured
                  over the past year.

                  Pastrana held a secret jungle rendezvous with the FARC's
                  commander, Manuel Marulanda, in July to show his commitment to
                  ending a civil conflict rooted in socialist demands but now pursued
                  by guerrillas who act more like capitalists.

                  In a speech Thursday, Pastrana said the rendezvous created conditions
                  for "a powerful alliance (with the rebels) against the crime of drug trafficking,
                  terrorism, privilege, corruption, human rights abuses and disrespect for the
                  environment."

Many Colombians are skeptical about the motives of the FARC, which has
about 15,000 guerrillas.

                  In none of its internal documents does the movement talk of peace, said
                  Eduardo Pizarro, a political scientist in Bogota, the capital. "But the FARC
                  loves to negotiate because it gives them political visibility, a national
                  presence, television."

The talks will be an international spectacle, and a bitter pill for Colombia's
demoralized military.

                  Critics say the government is making a big, and risky, concession by
                  withdrawing troops. They worry the rebels will take advantage to expand
                  their military stronghold in the country's south and increase their take from
                  drug traffickers, who pay the rebels for protection.

Troubled times for ranchers, businesses and families

                  The municipality of San Vicente has 20 square miles (51 square kilometers)
                  of coca crops, the government says, and it borders regions that are home to
                  most of Colombia's cocaine production.

                  Doing legitimate business in San Vicente is already becoming difficult. The
                  local farmers' credit union has gone bankrupt and it's not yet clear whether
                  banks will shut their doors.

                  Commerce has fallen 60 percent since the army pullout was announced and
                  worried ranchers have trucked out 70,000 of the district's 500,000 head of
                  cattle, said Lt. Col. Fernando Cabrera, the 36th Battalion commander,

He said 40 families had left town in defiance of a rebel order to remain.

                  There is no evidence of an exodus, however. For many people, the fear is
                  not of the FARC but of right-wing paramilitary death squads they think
                  could come calling after the peace talks end, looking for alleged guerrilla
                  sympathizers.

For most people, the army pullout won't change life much.

                  In the San Vicente district's more than 200 settlements along the winding
                  Caguan and tucked into surrounding hills, there is only one real government
                  -- the FARC. To the east, in the four other municipalities being left by the
                  army, it's pretty much the same.

Many in the region think the FARC wants a semiautonomous state.

                  Marulanda, the 68-year-old rebel leader who has been fighting for four
                  decades, has so far not specified any demands other than the release of 452
                  jailed rebels in return for his captives. In a Sept. 30 letter to Pastrana, he
                  also insisted "that no (state) authority but the mayors" be allowed in the
                  withdrawal zone.

In the small town of Pinalito on the eastern limit of the zone, the boss is a
diminutive FARC commander who goes by the name Alberto.

Alberto is sure the pending peace talks will not end with a guerrilla
demobilization.

"Our goal is to take power," he told a reporter. "We will never hand over
our arms and we will form an army, the army of the people."