BY ANDRES OPPENHEIMER

  In what pollsters call a steady shift away from hard-line positions, a new poll shows a virtual tie among Cuban exiles on the issue of whether the Bush
  administration should lift restrictions on Americans who want to travel to Cuba.

  The poll also found that practically half of those surveyed said they send money to their families in Cuba, a significant source of income for a country
  whose government is often in desperate need of hard currency, particularly dollars.

  Most Cuban-American exiles support a peaceful and gradual transition to democracy in Cuba, including possible amnesty for Cuban government officials,
  according to the poll, which was obtained by The Herald and is being released today by a group of influential exiles.

  The findings are being issued just days before President Bush visits Miami to announce an expected tightening of the travel and economic embargo. The
  adjustment is designed to accommodate the perceived hard-line stance of the exile community in South Florida, but the poll suggests attitudes are
  becoming more, rather than less, flexible.

  The poll, conducted by Bendixen and Associates in late April, showed a continued -- if not very enthusiastic -- support for the U.S. trade embargo on the
  island. Exiles are almost evenly divided on whether the trade embargo has worked, and a majority think it should no longer be the U.S. principal tool to
  help bring about democratic changes on the island.

  ''What surprised me the most is that a solid majority of those interviewed are willing to give an amnesty to officials of Fidel Castro's government,'' said
  Sergio Bendixen, who conducted the poll for the Cuba Study Group, an informal association of more than a dozen wealthy Cuban exiles. ``In the past,
  that was a mortal sin in Miami.''

  Indeed, in sharp contrast with the majority opinion among Cuban exiles a decade ago, most seem to have given up on the idea of an anti-Castro
  rebellion on the island. Seventy-nine percent of those polled said they prefer a ''gradual and peaceful'' transition to democracy, while only 16 percent said
  they would rather have an ''abrupt and violent'' change of government.

  According to the telephone poll of 800 Cuban exiles in Miami-Dade County, which organizers said has a margin of error of 3 percent, a 56 percent majority
  said they would favor an amnesty for Castro government officials who cooperated with a transition to democracy. Only 29 percent opposed such
  amnesty.

  ''The poll shows that Cuban exiles are not an intransigent group, stuck in the past,'' said Carlos Saladrigas, chairman of Premier American Bank and one
  of the Cuba Study Group leaders. ``It's a group that is willing to seek new alternatives that could be the most effective in bringing about democracy in
  Cuba.''

  A previous poll by the Cuba Study Group was criticized by some hard-line exile groups, arguing among other things that its organizers had failed to
  disclose that it had been conducted more than a year before its release. Such criticism prompted the group to commission a new survey, organizers said.

  Pepe Hernandez, president of the Cuban American National Foundation, the biggest and until recently one of the most hard-line group of Cuban exiles,
  said he is not surprised by the results. The CANF's own internal polls show a similar trend toward a national reconciliation among Cubans, he said.

  ''Over the past few years, but especially since the Elián González episode, there has been a change,'' Hernandez said. ``Growing numbers of exiles no
  longer look at the situation in Cuba in terms of confrontation, but in terms of reconciliation, in the sense of looking for a common destiny, and not one in
  which there will be winners and losers.''

  Hernandez said the change is the result of demographics: Since the 1994 migration accords that allowed more than 20,000 Cubans to emigrate annually
  to the United States, about 250,000 Cubans -- including rafters -- have come to America. Most of them are young people, who have parents, siblings and
  close friends on the island, and who don't consider the people left behind as their enemies, he said.

  ''In addition, there is a feeling that the Cuban people have suffered too much already, and that we need to head toward a process of transition,''
  Hernandez added.

  Ninoska Pérez Castellón, a leading member of the hard-line Cuban Liberty Council, which recently split from the CANF, was skeptical about the new poll.
  She suggested that the questions may have been asked in such a way as to elicit the responses organizers wanted.

  ''When they talk about reconciliation, the question that should be asked is reconciliation with whom,'' Pérez Castellón said. ``If we are talking about
  reconciliation with a surgeon who applied electroshocks to political prisoners, I wouldn't support reconciliation.''

  The new poll by Bendixen and Associates found that 48 percent of Cuban exiles are sending money to their relatives in Cuba. According to estimates of
  the Inter-American Development Bank and other organizations, such money transfers pump anywhere from $600 to $950 million a year into the Cuban
  economy, and have become one of the island's top income sources.

  While a 61 percent majority wants the U.S. government to continue the trade embargo, 52 percent believe the sanctions should no longer be the focus of
  U.S. Cuba policy, and should be replaced by new measures. In addition, 46 percent of the exiles polled support lifting restrictions on American tourists to
  visit Cuba, while 47 percent are against changing the current rules -- a technical tie given the poll's margin of error.

  And while the majority supports keeping the U.S. trade embargo, 65 percent want the U.S. government to continue allowing exiles to send money to their
  relatives in Cuba, and 53 percent would want it to lift restrictions on the amount of money that can be sent.

  In addition to Saladrigas, the Cuba Study Group includes among others former U.S. ambassador to Belgium and chairman of PLC Investments Paul L.
  Cejas, Coca Cola Puerto Rico Bottlers and Eagles Brands Chairman Carlos de la Cruz, and Flo-Sun Inc. Chairman Alfonso Fanjul.

  Herald intern Larissa Ruiz Campo contributed to this report.