The University of Miami looks at how the differing views of Cuban Americans and Cubans would affect rebuilding the nation after a regime change.

BY NANCY SAN MARTIN

  Even as many Cubans on the island have serious misgivings about those in exile, a majority believe Cuban Americans should be able to return to their homeland to
  contribute to rebuilding efforts following a regime change, according to a study that will be released this week.

  The study, which relied on survey responses from recently arrived Cubans, attempts to understand the ''value system'' of Cubans who have lived under the 45-year
  communist rule of Fidel Castro in an effort to better prepare for a transition in the Caribbean nation.

  The results of the study, Understanding the Social and Political Value System of Cubans on the Island, will be released Wednesday by the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies.

  ''Most transitional studies have looked at political, legal and economic conditions, but none have taken an in-depth look at how human behavior impacts on this process,''
  said Andy Gomez, a senior fellow at the institute and one of seven academics who prepared the research. ``Understanding the value system of Cubans will help us
  address how to deal with the political, economic and legal transition in Cuba.''

  The survey was based on a sample of 208 predominantly white Cubans older than 21 years old. It has a five percentage point margin of error.

  Among the findings:

  • 34 percent distrust Cuban exiles.

  • 53 percent don't support the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba.

  • 65 percent are in favor of exiles returning to Cuba.

  • 51 percent said they would not return to Cuba even if the political system changed.

  Gomez said the findings suggest that Cuban Americans may have to play a secondary role when transition occurs.

  ''Can we Cubans in exile be the first ones to land in Cuba to implement these new values? We don't think so,'' he said, adding that nongovernmental organizations will
  have to lend significant financial support and expertise in building civil society.

  Another important issue the survey showed is that Cubans have a lack of faith in all formal institutions on the island, which could be problematic when new institutions are established in a Cuba without Castro.

  The study was inspired by a visit to the Czech Republic in 2002, where Gomez said he heard the prime minister tell a reporter the transitional process might have been
  easier if the government had listened more to the needs of the people and paid less attention to the political and economic tradition of the former communist country.

  Researchers had initially planned to conduct the survey inside Cuba, but two out of three colleagues that were going to help carry out the project were among 75 arrested during last year's dissident crackdown. Each received 30-year sentences. Gomez declined to identify their Cuban counterparts for fear they or their families might suffer more reprisals.

  The research team changed strategies by interviewing Cubans who had been in the United States no more than one month. They turned to Church World Services, a
  resettlement agency, which agreed to administer the survey as part of its orientation program. The survey was carried out Nov. 10 to Dec. 25.

  The research team is seeking funding to do a broader study comparing the value systems of Cubans in the United States for less than one year and exiles who arrived in four separate waves since Castro took control in 1959.

  ''It's important to understand the value system of both those on the island and here in order for reconciliation to take place,'' said the Cuba-born Gomez.

  ``There are some who believe transition involves removing Castro and his cronies from the picture, but you have to put them in proper, historical context. You can't just
  erase them from our history.''

  ''Rather than exporting values and ideas from the outside, you need to somehow develop them jointly with the people inside Cuba,'' he added. ``We in exile are going to
  have to be patient and supportive.''