The Miami Herald
November 9, 2000

Seniors, Cuban exiles key forces

 BY MARK SILVA

 Republican George W. Bush, big brother of Florida's governor, built his victory in
 Florida on a surprisingly strong vote among senior citizens, traditionally aligned
 with Democrats, and overwhelming support among Cuban Americans disaffected
 with the Clinton administration's handling of Cuban affairs.

 ``Among Cuban Americans, it is spectacular,'' said U.S. Rep. Lincoln Díaz-Balart,
 R-Miami, co-chairman of the Bush campaign in Florida, eyeing high voter turnout
 projections. ``Can you believe these turnouts? It speaks so well of our
 democracy.''

 The GOP organization spent millions of dollars here, and the Bushes campaigned
 among massive and adoring crowds that lent them an air of invincibility. But Gore
 campaigned long and hard in Florida, too.

 ``Six months ago, Florida was written off. It was declared Bush country,'' said
 Florida's senior senator, Democrat Bob Graham of Miami Lakes. ``Al Gore would
 not accept that and contested it very aggressively.''

 Democrats insisted the popularity of Bush's brother did not guarantee success.

 ``People vote for a president based on that person . . . and I do not believe
 anybody can transfer a vote to anybody else,'' said Attorney General Bob
 Butterworth, chairman of Gore's Florida campaign. ``We always said Florida was
 in play.''

 The magnitude of a female vote for Gore -- especially among working women --
 worked in Gore's favor, according to a Voter News Service survey for The Herald of
 voters leaving the polls.

 Add to that a high black voter turnout and Gore came close to winning.

 The Voter News Service survey found that women turned out in far greater
 numbers than men and handed a cascade of votes to the vice president. Fifty-four
 percent of Florida's vote was cast by women, three points higher than in the last
 election.

 According to the survey, blacks cast 16 percent of Florida's presidential vote, six
 points higher than in 1996.

 But the turnout of blacks and women didn't offset Bush's successful effort to split
 with Gore a vote among senior citizens that traditionally goes to the Democrat.

 Jim Kane, a Fort Lauderdale pollster, suggested that Bush's strength among
 senior voters in a race in which Gore campaigned hard on Social Security and
 Medicare shows that an older, traditionally Democratic generation of aging ``New
 Dealers'' is passing on.

 Susan MacManus, an author on the political power of senior citizens, called the
 Florida vote ``good news for Bush, because the 65-and-older vote has traditionally
 been the most Democratic group. It means he made inroads into the senior
 population.''

 The Clinton administration's handling of the young shipwreck survivor Elián
 González also worked in Bush's favor: Cuban-American voters in Miami-Dade
 County overwhelmingly backed Bush. The Republican has amassed support
 among Cuban Americans that rivals former President Ronald Reagan's vote in the
 1980s.

 Clinton had made inroads, capturing as much as 40 percent of the Cuban vote in
 his reelection. But Gore apparently was limited to less than 20 percent of this
 influential vote largely because of lingering resentment over Clinton's handling of
 Elián. The gender gap was also apparent in Florida as women and men took
 different sides in a contest that Gore attempted to cast as a battle over the future
 of the Supreme Court itself.

 Because the next president may appoint three or more justices, Gore has
 maintained that his support of a woman's right to choose abortion will ensure a
 court that upholds the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling. Bush insisted he would have
 no ``litmus test'' for appointees, but pointed to some of the most conservative and
 anti-abortion justices, such as Clarence Thomas, as his models.

 ``I think it was an important factor, particularly with middle-aged women,'' Graham
 said.

 Gore held a 10-point advantage over Bush among Florida's women, Bush an
 eight-point lead among men. Among working women, Gore's advantage was
 greater: 60 percent to 38 percent.

 The Clinton administration's handling of survivor Elián González also worked in
 Bush's favor.

 Gore's advantage among black voters was 9-1, traditional for a Democratic
 candidate in Florida.

 The Democratic Party, the NAACP, the Rev. Jesse Jackson and others
 campaigned hard in Florida to turn out voters alienated by the governor's ``One
 Florida'' initiative. Jeb Bush replaced affirmative action in state university
 admissions with a guarantee that the top fifth of high school graduates are
 admitted.

 State Sen. Kendrick Meek, a Miami Democrat who protested Jeb Bush's move
 with a sit-in earlier this year in the governor's office, campaigned in black
 precincts around the state with a simple plea for everyone turning out to vote:
 ``Arrive with Five.''

 His mother, U.S. Rep. Carrie Meek, D-Miami, proclaimed in a rally outside the
 new Shoppes of Liberty City on NW 54th Street: ``We want a 100 percent turnout
 in Liberty City.''

 Ultimately, it didn't work.

 But Florida offered Democrats at least one gain Tuesday.

 Democrat Bill Nelson took one of the nation's few open Senate seats, which
 Republican Connie Mack has held for 12 years.

 Yet Republicans maintained a comfortable edge in both houses of the state
 Legislature and it appeared that the GOP's two candidates for open state Cabinet
 seats would prevail.

 Overshadowing all these contests was the one race in which the Republican
 Party of Florida invested most heavily, raising and spending millions of dollars on
 a personal cause for Florida's governor.

 Asked about pressure to deliver Florida, Jeb Bush said: ``I feel pressure as a
 brother.'' But he said he had not ``guaranteed'' his brother victory.

 ``The notion that this was a lock I have rejected from the beginning,'' Jeb Bush
 said midway through Election Day. ``Because I know the state pretty well. This is
 a pretty dynamic place.''

 The Herald Capital Bureau's Steve Bousquet and staff writers Tyler Bridges and
 Phil Long contributed to this report.