A poll of Cuban exiles and Cuban Americans shows optimism about a transition to democracy on the communist island and an openness to U.S. negotiations with a new Cuban government.

BY OSCAR CORRAL

An overwhelming majority of Cuban Americans and Cuban exiles think that an ailing Fidel Castro will never return to power and that a transition could take hold within four years, according to a new poll examining the attitudes of South Florida's Cuban community.

Those are among several findings in a poll of 600 Cuban and Cuban American adults in Miami-Dade and Broward counties conducted Sept. 14-20 by Bendixen & Associates. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Seventy-four percent of Cuban Americans believe Fidel Castro is terminally ill, and 14 percent think he will recover from illness but never return to power.

With Cuba's Defense Minister Raúl Castro now in charge of the communist island, 55 percent of Cubans surveyed think a ''major transition towards democracy'' is a major probability, and 30 percent believe it's a minor probability.

''Fidel Castro is politically dead, and for all intents and purposes a relic for the history books,'' said Fernand Amandi, executive vice president of Bendixen & Associates.

It is the first major poll of Cuban Americans to be released since Fidel Castro had intestinal surgery for an undisclosed illness and transferred power to his brother, Raúl, at the end of July. Amandi said the poll was paid for by his company and by NDN, a nonprofit group formerly known as the New Democrat Network, which supports Democratic Party candidates.

NDN executive Joe Garcia said the poll shows that Cuban Americans and exiles are optimistic about the future, but perhaps frustrated with President Bush's handling of U.S.-Cuba policy in the wake of Fidel Castro's transfer of power.

Of the 600 polled, two-thirds said they were registered to vote, and of those, 72 percent identified themselves as Republican.

Asked if they approve or disapprove of the way Bush ''has managed the situation in Cuba since Fidel Castro handed over power to his brother,'' 51 percent approved, while 28 percent disapproved and 21 percent didn't know or didn't answer.

''All he [Bush] has promoted is the status quo in Cuba,'' Garcia said. ``When you realize the president has only 51 percent approval, it shows you that his numbers are tremendously weak.''

DISPUTES CLAIM

Ana Carbonell, chief of staff for U.S. Rep. Lincoln Díaz-Balart, disputed Garcia's claim that the president's support is slipping in the Cuban-American community.

''The Cuban-American community has full confidence in the administration's commitment to bringing about a full transition in Cuba,'' said Carbonell. ``The president has reiterated what U.S. policy is, which is that the U.S. will not engage the government of the Castro brothers.''

The results of one question in particular may catch the attention of Washington and of Raúl Castro's temporary government in Cuba. Seventy-two percent said the United States should ''negotiate'' with a ''new Cuban government [if it] shows an interest in a gradual improvement of relations with the exile community and with the United States.'' Only 20 percent said it should not negotiate.

''That to me was one of the most startling numbers,'' Amandi said. ``You hear all of this talk about how dialogue is almost a four-letter word in the exile community . . . but this number speaks to the open-mindedness of the exile community.''

Several Cuban exile leaders have long said that dialogue is possible with anyone but the Castro brothers.

Sergio Bendixen acknowledged that he believes fewer people would have voiced support for negotiation if the question had named Raúl Castro by name as a leader of a new Cuban government.

Like previous polls of the exile community, this one illustrates the different political attitudes among exiles who arrived in the United States before 1980, and those who came during the 1980 Mariel boatlift and afterward.

TIME FACTOR

Most of the early waves of exiles support travel and remittance restrictions imposed by Bush in 2004, which limited trips to visit family to once every three years and capped the amount of money exiles can send people in Cuba to $100 a month. The restrictions were opposed by a majority of Cubans who came in the 1980s and after.

One issue that exiles tend to agree on is the belief that property in Cuba now belongs to the people living there. Only 20 percent of those polled believe that residential properties in Cuba ''should belong to those who have title to that predating Fidel Castro's revolution.'' Sixty-seven percent said the properties belong to those who live in them now.

Florida International University professor Antonio Jorge said he believed some of the questions were loaded and may have led to skewed answers. For example, the question that asks about the probability of a ''major transition toward democracy in Cuba'' doesn't explain what is meant by transition.

OPTIMISM

''It does illustrate optimism, but it's not a properly worded question,'' Jorge said.

He also took issue with the wording of the question that asked about negotiating with a new Cuban government. To many exiles, he said, ''gradual improvement of relations'' means taking steps toward democracy and a free-market economy -- changes that the current Cuban government has not expressed an interest in pursuing.

Miami Herald staff writer Casey Woods contributed to this report.