WASHINGTON -- Six in 10 Cuban-American voters say they likely will cast ballots for President Bush in November, a substantial drop from the support he received in 2000, possibly reflecting tensions between exiles and a White House that some in the community feel has fallen short of its tough anti-Fidel Castro rhetoric.

Bush is estimated to have garnered about 80 percent of the Cuban-American vote in the 2000 election, thanks in large part to anger over the Clinton administration's return of Elián González to Cuba.

But in a recent poll of Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, only 58.4 percent of registered voters said they would definitely or probably vote for Bush in November.

About one-quarter said they were undecided, with the rest saying they probably would not or definitely would not vote to re-elect the president.

Bush won Florida by only 537 votes after a disputed election in 2000, so any drop in support or turnout among Cuban-Americans is a cause for concern among Republicans.

"There is no Elián to kick around anymore," said Guillermo Grenier, a sociologist at Florida International University and the author of the poll, which has been done seven times since 1991.

The survey of 1,807 Cuban-Americans was conducted Jan. 30 through March 16 by Florida International University in partnership with the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and NBC 6, and included registered voters and non-voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

A Bush campaign spokesman said the president plans to come on strong among Cuban-Americans and said the White House's record would contrast favorably with the Cuba record of the Democratic presidential nominee, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

"You're dealing with someone who has not been tough on Castro," said Bush spokesman Reed Dickens.

Several silver linings for the White House are found in the poll results. Bush's support is strongest, between 63.1 and 66.1 percent, among Cuban-Americans who arrived in the United States before 1975. That group includes older exiles who are more likely to vote. Interviews with respondents showed that many still feel Bush is their best alternative.

"I'm going to vote for him, for Bush," said Francisco Abella Jr., 54, of Miami. "I trust Bush more."

Problems for the GOP

Abella, who has been in the United States for 37 years, said Cuban-Americans feel Republicans are stronger against communism and better on defense.

Abella also said he would like to see tighter control of travel to Cuba and more restrictions on money that his fellow Cuban-Americans send to family members on the island.

"As a Cuban, I would like more to be done," he said.

Juan Caballero, 53, agreed, saying that if travel and remittances, the money Cuban-Americans send to their families were cut off, it might topple Castro. But Caballero, who grew up in New York and now lives in Miramar, is a Democrat who is angry about the war in Iraq and the sputtering economy.

"I try not to vote anything Republican," Caballero said.

Kerry spokesman Mark Kornblau said Bush is hurting among Cuban-Americans and the rest of the country.

"He's left a trail of broken promises through Florida and across the nation," Kornblau said. "George Bush says one thing on Cuba and does another."

Bush's diminishing support among Cuban-Americans could signal future problems for the Republican Party, whose hold on that community appears to be slipping.

Cuban-Americans who arrived since 1985, who represent almost one-third of the adult population, and those born in the United States were the least likely to support the president and the Cuban-American Republican members of Congress.

Among the 10 percent of Cuban-American adults born in the United States, only 37.9 percent said they would definitely or probably vote for the president.

Overall, Cuban-Americans favor continuing the economic embargo of the island by a margin of 66 percent to 34 percent. But the vast majority -- 74.7 percent -- say the embargo has not worked.

"The embargo is still a symbolic stick that the Cuban community feels it still has in its hands," said Grenier, the poll's author.

But when asked about specific aspects of the embargo and the travel ban, Cuban-Americans are split.

Those who came to the United States before 1975 are the most likely to oppose unrestricted travel, with seven in 10 saying it should not be allowed.

But for those who arrived in the United States since 1985, 68.3 percent support unrestricted travel. Cuban-Americans born in the United States are evenly split.

Respondents also were more supportive of dialogue among Cuban-Americans, the island's dissidents and the Cuban government.

The poll showed 56 percent of Cuban-Americans would be open to such a dialogue, an issue that has been fraught with controversy in the exile community. The figure is the highest since FIU began doing the poll in 1991.

But again, those who favored a dialogue were more likely to have arrived in the United States in the last 20 years. Cuban-Americans also are divided over food sales to the island, with 55.1 percent in favor.

Bush has staked his claim to the hearts of many Cuban-American voters by threatening to veto legislation weakening the embargo.

In fact, critics of the White House's ties to South Florida's exile community have argued that since 2000 the Bush administration has been catering to Cuban-Americans with tough rhetoric against Castro and moves to tighten the embargo.

Nevertheless, the president appears to have work to do if he wants the Cuban-American support he received in 2000. Some Cuban-Americans say Bush's Cuba policy is not much different from that of former President Bill Clinton. That has led to public rifts between the White House and groups like the Cuban American National Foundation, a powerful exile organization that lobbies in Washington and assists dissidents in Cuba.

Tension also exists between the White House and others in the Cuban-American community, including South Florida's Cuban-American members of Congress.

In January 2003, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Miami, wrote the White House urging more support for dissidents on the island and the end of the wet foot/dry foot policy, which usually allows Cuban immigrants who reach shore to stay in the United States while typically sending back those interdicted at sea.

Tensions boiled over in July 2003, when 12 immigrants, accused of commandeering a boat, were returned to Cuba after the White House negotiated with Havana to make sure they would receive no more than 10-year prison sentences.

The following month, 13 Republican members of the Florida House of Representatives told the White House the administration needed to be tougher on Castro.

Remembering 2000

"As Republicans, obviously we support President Bush and are seeking overwhelming turnout from Cuban-Americans, reminiscent of the 2000 election," said State Rep. David Rivera, R-Miami, one of the legislators who signed the letter. "But right now, it's just not there."

Rivera said he is not concerned about the percentage of Cuban-Americans who will vote for Bush. He is worried Cuban-American voters might not turn out with the same fervor as they did in 2000, lowering the number of votes the president gets in a state that once again could be hotly contested.

In 2000, Cuban-Americans were angry with Clinton and Attorney General Janet Reno for returning Elián González, the young rafter boy, to his father in Cuba. Not only is Bush estimated to have received 70 to 80 percent of the Cuban-American vote, but turnout was high, with 450,000 Cuban-Americans going to the polls.

In some predominantly Cuban-American precincts, Bush received close to 90 percent of the vote and turnout was more than 70 percent of registered voters.

In the Sun-Sentinel poll, discontent with the White House did not extend to the four Cuban-Americans in Congress: Ros-Lehtinen and fellow Miami Republicans Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart, as well as Rep. Robert Menendez, D-N.J. The survey showed that 85.3 percent felt the four are doing a very good or good job.

Concerns about Kerry

The Bush campaign is aware of the discontent among some Cuban-Americans and is trying to combat it.

Last week, the campaign set up a conference call for reporters with Rep. Mark Foley, R-West Palm Beach, and Mario Diaz-Balart, to criticize Kerry for being weak on Castro.

The two accused the senator of failing to support the Helms-Burton Act, the 1996 legislation meant to get tough on companies doing business in Cuba. Foley criticized Kerry for opposing a provision in the law known as Title III, which would allow U.S. citizens to sue people and companies using their confiscated property in Cuba.

But Title III has never been enforced, in large part for fear that it would spark a major dispute with Europe and Canada, where many of the companies now doing business in Cuba are based. Presidents Clinton and Bush both have waived it every six months since 1996.

Mario Diaz-Balart defended Bush's record, even though he said he disagreed with the Title III waivers.

"President Bush's record on Cuba has been just phenomenal," he said.

Older voters like Mirta Acosta, 73, of Pembroke Pines agree. Acosta would like to see the travel ban tightened so that even Cuban-Americans could only go to the island to visit a very ill family member, and even then, only once a year. But she realizes that is not likely.

"In 42 years that I have been here no president has done much for Cuba," Acosta said. "At least [Bush] has done more than the rest."

Rafael Lorente can be reached at rlorente@sun-sentinel.com or 202-824-8225 in Washington.

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