Newsday
November 1, 2004

At Miami rally, Bush gets an enthusiastic response, but polls give him narrow lead or show race even

BY KEN FIREMAN
WASHINGTON BUREAU

MIAMI - Speaking at a raucous rally with a strong Cuban-American flavor, President George W. Bush vowed yesterday to "keep the pressure on" Fidel Castro until Cubans enjoy "the gift of freedom."

In his final daylong stump through potentially decisive Florida, Bush framed the case for his re-election as a question of who could safeguard the "safety and prosperity" of the country. Democratic nominee John Kerry, Bush said, could not.

With just 48 hours to go before the voters speak, Bush awoke to a batch of polls showing the contest extremely close, nationally, in Florida and several other swing states.

Bush yesterday acknowledged publicly for the first time the possibility that he might not win. According to a transcript of an interview with NBC News that aired last night, Bush was asked whether he thought the election would be resolved tomorrow. He replied, "I certainly hope so ... I think it is vital that whichever one of us wins, wins that night ... because it's really important."

Bush ended his day with an evening rally in Cincinnati. His final day of campaigning will be spent careening across five pivotal states - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico - before closing his campaign with a welcome-home rally in Dallas.

In Florida, the state's large Cuban-American community was crucial to Bush's razor-thin victory in 2000 that put him in the White House. This year, some analysts have questioned whether Bush will receive the same level of support because of discontent over the administration's decision to curtail travel and cash transfers to Cuba.

Many Cuban-Americans in South Florida bridled at the new restrictions because they limit their ability to visit relatives and send them money.

But there was no sign of that discontent at the Miami rally, which drew several thousand and included many Cuban- Americans. The hall was peppered with handmade signs in Spanish praising Bush, and one in English excoriating his opponent: "Five out of five dictators agree - Go Kerry."

In a similar vein, several warmup speakers implied a link between Kerry and Castro; one accused Kerry of "consorting with dictators."

Bush offered the crowd a few Spanish phrases and words of support in English.

"We will continue to press hard and ensure that the gift of freedom finally reaches the men and women of Cuba. We will keep the pressure on until the Cuban people enjoy the same freedoms in Havana they receive here in America. I strongly believe the people of Cuba should be free from the tyrant," he said, triggering furious applause and chants of "Viva Bush!"

Before the rally, Bush worshiped at a Catholic church where his brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, is a parishioner.

The president was praised from the pulpit by the church's pastor, Msgr. Jude O'Doherty.

"I want you to know I admire your faith and your courage to profess it," O'Doherty said. "Your belief in prayer and dependence on God is an example to all of us."

A new national poll by the Pew Research Center showed Bush with a narrow 3 percentage point lead among likely voters, within the survey's 2.5 percent margin of error. The poll found that late-decided voters were not breaking massively in Kerry's direction, and that a new videotaped message Friday from al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden seemed to have no impact on voters' preferences.

Three new national tracking polls had the race even, and surveys in most swing states were also close, underscoring predictions that whichever campaign is more successful in turning out its supporters will prevail.

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