Plan would focus on 5 jailed in U.S.

 BY ELAINE DE VALLE AND LUISA YANEZ

 Cuba's continued condemnation of last month's conviction in Miami of five Cuban spies -- coupled with a televised parade of Cuban-born South Florida residents arrested and jailed on the island -- has sparked speculation that communist leaders are laying the groundwork for some sort of prisoner exchange.

 Both the Cuban intelligence agents held in isolation at a federal prison in Miami and the migrant smugglers and commando raiders held in Cuban jails have been the focus recently on Mesa Redonda, a nightly political ``round table'' show on Cuba's state-run television.

 "Fidel is up to something,'' said Jaime Suchlicki, director of the University of Miami's Institute for Cuba and Cuban American Studies.

 Last week, the show was used to announce that Sabino Serrano López and Luis Enrique Santiago Rodríguez, both of South Florida, were sentenced to life in prison and 20 years respectively for trying to smuggle eight migrants to Florida.

 Officials did not say when the two men were tried, but both were arrested in October 1999. Panelists on the Thursday show noted that between April 1998 and April 2000, 87 Cubans living in the United States were arrested for attempted smuggling.

 Another three men arrested April 26 after they landed on the northern coast of Villa Clara province with four AK-47 assault rifles, an M-3 rifle with a silencer and three Makarov pistols were featured on the June 20 televised program, even though Cuba typically does not publicize that type of arrests. The men, identified as Ihosvani Surís de la Torre, Santiago Padrón Quintero and Máximo Padrera Valdés, also known as Máximo Robaina, are accused of trying to start an insurrection on the island.

 TIMING ISSUE

 Why would the government release the information two months later? Many say the timing suggests Havana is putting together a swap proposal.

 "That's what Cuba is playing for,'' said Joe García, executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation. "It would give them tremendous credibility, because [Fidel] Castro would be at the same level again as he was with Elián: having the americanos negotiating with him.''

 Jack Blumenfeld, attorney for convicted spy Antonio Guerrero, said he has heard ``speculations and rumors'' about a trade.

 "Such an exchange would be the appropriate thing to do,'' Blumenfeld said. ``That's what other countries do when they capture each others' spies -- they send them
 home.''

 NOT U.S. SPIES

 But the men in Cuban jails are not U.S. spies, García noted, and the United States has ``no political interest'' in their release.

 ``Unless they throw something else into the deal.''

 Like, perhaps, U.S. fugitives?

 That's a scenario envisioned by UM's Suchlicki.

 "Cuba has people like [wanted financier Robert] Vesco and some Black Panthers that the FBI might want back,'' Suchlicki said.

 The FBI lists more than 75 federal fugitives hiding out in Cuba, including convicted murderer Joanne Chesimard -- known to supporters as Assata Shakur.

 "[The U.S.] might want to trade for people like that,'' Suchlicki said.

 The tone of the Mesa Redonda programs indicate Castro will go to great length to liberate the convicted spies, he said.

 "He owes it to these men and has an obligation to his intelligence community to try to get them out. In the past, the U.S. and other countries have exchanged spies.
 Why not in this case?''

 CUBA'S MOTIVATION

 There is motivation to get the spies out, he added.

 "Castro might also be concerned about what the spies will say, even though by now, I would think the spies have said everything they're going to say,'' Suchlicki said.

 Luis Fernández, spokesman for the Cuban Interests Section in Washington, D.C., could not be reached for comment.

 Charles Shapiro, Cuba desk chief at the State Department, said there was no talk of a trade at the last migration talks between U.S. and Cuban officials in New York two weeks ago. ``They didn't say anything about it.''

 But is it a possibility?

 "I can't answer that question,'' Shapiro said. "We've traded spies in the past with the Soviet Union. I'm not aware that we've ever traded spies for folks who are not spies.''

 Carlos Cajaraville, a former Cuban counter-intelligence agent now living in Miami, said the difference was significant.

 "Prisoner exchanges are agent for agent. These people in Cuba are not CIA agents,'' Cajaraville said. ``They are people who went for their own motives, not sent by the U.S. government. They did not go on orders of the United States.''

 He said the campaign to free the five spies is the Cuban government's way of sending a message to other Cuban spies abroad, including 50 ``operatives'' -- which could be one man or association -- which the FBI suspects are at work in the United States.

 "[The Cuban government] could be worried about other spies and this is a campaign to show them that they are not alone.''

 One person who hopes a swap of prisoners will be arranged is Lesbia Surís, who sits in her Little Havana home every night wondering how her husband is doing in
 Havana's Villa Marista prison -- and when she'll see him again.

 "His family says not to worry. That they are treating him well. That the cases like him are treated well,'' she said. ``But I don't know. Maybe they just want to calm me.''

 She doesn't want the U.S. government to think of her husband as a "terrorist'' -- as Cuba has labeled him.

 ``He is a good man. And a father. He is a great father.''

 Herald translator Renato Pérez contributed to this report.