BY DON FINEFROCK

 When Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas accused the federal government two weeks
 ago of provoking civil unrest over Elian Gonzalez and said local police would not enforce
 federal law, the caustic remarks caught many by surprise -- including some members of
 the mayor's own staff.

 Only a handful of people who work for the mayor had reviewed the speech before
 Penelas spoke in front of the federal courthouse.

 Some of those advisors had urged the mayor to tone down his rhetoric, but Penelas
 disregarded that advice.

 Political observers, including Penelas supporters, describe the speech as a blunder.
 The mistake will haunt him if he runs for higher office, they say.

 Since the speech and the backlash against it, the mayor has taken pains to emphasize
 that the police will not tolerate violence or disorder. On Friday, he led a group of exile
 leaders who called for calm and announced a peaceful demonstration for Monday.

 Penelas says it was passion, not politics, that prompted him to drop his usual
 diplomatic demeanor on March 29 and strike a defiant pose.

 ''I am sure my delivery was stronger than it usually is, but this is a very
 passionate issue, Penelas said in an interview Thursday. ''People have to
 understand that I am human, too.

 Penelas helped to write the speech -- and in fact made it stronger than some felt
 prudent. The mayor said he did not seek advice from his campaign staff or outside
 political advisors. The speech was reviewed by his chief of staff, Sergio Gonzalez,
 and by spokesman Juan Mendieta before it was delivered.

 ''There were some comments that it was too strong, Penelas said, without
 elaborating. But no one predicted the coming firestorm.

 ''When we read it, we read it for what it said. I don't think there was an enormous
 amount of concern, Penelas said.

 The mayor says that in hindsight he should have reassured people that local
 police would step in to restore order in the event of a civil disturbance.

 ''I could have added a line or two to make it totally clear, he said.

 Ironically, the words the mayor now wishes he had said were in the speech, but
 Penelas did not deliver them. A text provided by the mayor's office includes the
 words: ''Our officers are prepared to keep the public order.

 Penelas skipped over those words.

 Mendieta, the mayor's spokesman, said he expressed reservations about the
 specific reference to Attorney General Janet Reno in the speech. Penelas said he
 would hold Reno responsible for any violence in the community.

 ''It is not uncommon for folks on the staff to weigh in and tell the mayor one way
 or another how they feel, Mendieta said.

 ADVICE NOT HEEDED

 In this case, Penelas didn't take the advice. Mendieta said the mayor felt strongly
 about the specific reference to Reno and his warning that local police would not
 enforce federal law.

 Gonzalez, the mayor's chief of staff, declined to say what role he played in the
 process or what advice he gave the mayor.

 But Mendieta said the final version of the speech was stronger than the version he
 reviewed. Others were caught off guard, too.

 Supporters have expressed surprise that Penelas -- who is usually tightly scripted
 and rarely takes extreme positions -- would deliver such an intemperate speech.

 ''If there is anyone who is a 'don't rock the boat' guy, it is Alex Penelas, said
 former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre, who attended the event where Penelas made
 the speech. ''Without any question, making that statement was totally out of
 character.

 Ferre characterized the speech as a blunder. So did businessman Raul Masvidal,
 a Penelas supporter who has advised the mayor in the past.

 CAREFUL SPEAKER

 ''This is the first time that I have seen Penelas commit what I would call a political
 error, Masvidal said. ''He has been very careful in the past in his positions. They
 have all been very well thought out, very measured.

 Penelas sought last week to calm the storm over his remarks.

 The mayor called community leaders to assure them his remarks had been
 misinterpreted, and he appeared on WMBM-AM (1490) with Bishop Victor Curry,
 pastor of New Birth Baptist Church and the head of the NAACP in Miami-Dade
 County.

 Although Penelas was denounced by some WMBM callers -- one man accused
 the mayor of treason -- Curry said the mayor deserves credit for facing his critics.

 ''The one thing about it, he will take his licks, Curry said. ''He takes the good, he
 takes the bad. I have admired him for that.

 Curry attributed the mayor's remarks to the heat of the moment.

 ''This entire Elian thing is just an emotional powder keg, he said. ''Like many
 others, I disagree with the speech . . . but I understand the passion that the
 mayor has.

 POLITICAL MOTIVE?

 Others attributed the blunder to politics. The mayor's chief rival at County Hall,
 Commissioner Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, had announced his decision to run
 against Penelas for mayor the same morning.

 ''I think he was obviously making the statement to consolidate his position with
 the Cuban-American community -- which he didn't need to do, Ferre said.

 Penelas traditionally has enjoyed strong support among Cuban Americans and
 other Hispanics. Ferre ran against Penelas in 1996 and lost.

 Penelas denies that he was playing to his political base. Whatever his motives,
 the speech has political implications for his future.

 ''Here you have the chief executive of the county, who is sworn to uphold the law,
 basically saying, 'Don't count on us,'  said James Corey, a professor of political
 science at the University of Miami. ''I think it hurts his image.

 Corey and others say the speech probably won't damage the mayor's bid for
 reelection in September -- unless violence erupts in the fight over Elian.

 POSSIBLE COST

 But Penelas has higher ambitions. In a future race outside South Florida, the
 speech will haunt the mayor. ''Any opponent would be certain to bring that up as
 an example of poor leadership, Corey said.

 Penelas also will face the issue if he is tapped for a job in Washington that
 requires Senate confirmation, Corey predicted.

 ''In a heartbeat, that would be brought up, the professor said.

 Penelas said he hasn't thought about the political fallout from the speech.

 ''I really haven't given that a whole lot of thought. My main concern is getting
 through this issue, he said.

 Asked if he considered the speech a blunder, Penelas paused for a long moment
 before answering.

 ''No, I don't think it was a blunder, he said. ''It is an issue that I feel very strongly
 about. Unfortunately, it was misinterpreted by some. I can't help that, other than
 to try now to clarify what I said.

                     Copyright 2000 Miami Herald