If Elian Gonzalez gains the right to have his political asylum claim heard by the
 U.S. government, immigration experts say the boy will have a hard time proving
 he faces ``a well-founded fear of persecution'' in Cuba -- the standard for winning
 asylum.

 An asylum hearing for Elian seemed to become more probable on Wednesday,
 when a federal appeals court in Atlanta strongly implied in a ruling that the
 Immigration and Naturalization Service erred when it found the boy was too young
 to file an application and that only his Cuban father can speak for him.

 The three-judge appellate panel barred Elian's removal from the country until it
 concludes an appeal by his Miami relatives on whether the child himself has a
 right to apply for asylum. Oral arguments are set for May 11.

 The legal team representing Elian's Miami relatives argues that the boy has a
 strong case to make for asylum because he faces political exploitation if he is
 forced to return to Cuba.

 But immigration experts said Thursday that it doesn't seem likely the Cuban
 government will persecute the child on the basis of his race, religion, nationality,
 membership in a social group or political opinion -- the only legal criteria for
 granting asylum.

 ELIAN REVERED

 They say if the 6-year-old ever returns to his homeland, Cuban President Fidel
 Castro is likely to treat him as a hero and his father's family with generosity.

 ``Since Elian is as revered as he is in Cuba, it seems to me very hard to imagine
 that the asylum claim has any chance to succeed,'' said Stephen Legomsky,
 professor of law at Washington University in St. Louis.

 ``It does seem implausible that his [Miami] relatives could make a real asylum
 claim for the boy,'' said University of Virginia law professor David Martin.

 According to INS records, winning asylum is a daunting feat for anyone.

 During the past fiscal year, the INS reviewed 32,644 asylum applications and
 approved 13,510 nationwide -- a 38 percent approval rate.

 In the regional office for Florida, Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands, the INS
 processed 3,598 asylum applications and approved 849 -- a 20 percent approval
 rate.

 ``Lots of people who apply for asylum don't have merit,'' said Erich Cauller,
 director of the INS asylum office in Miami. ``They're looking for an avenue to stay
 in the United States, but they don't have a strong claim.''

 The typical asylum application process takes two to three months.

 Federal court papers offer a glimpse into the boy's asylum request.

 They include a history of his mother Elisabeth Brotons' relationship with Rafael
 Lazaro Munero, the man described as Elian's stepfather. Munero was the one
 who organized the ill-fated voyage where he, Brotons, and nine others died before
 Elian was rescued off Florida in an inner tube on Nov. 25.

 Munero had been persecuted for years by the Cuban government, according to
 court papers. That persecution led the Communist Party to question the loyalty of
 the boy's mother.

 And the Miami relatives' lawyers argue that same kind of persecution would affect
 Elian if he is sent back to Cuba, where Castro has exploited the custody fight by
 turning him into a virtual ``poster boy'' for his regime.

 The legal team's argument was supported by Dr. Marta Molina, who worked as a
 psychologist in Cuba for 20 years before coming to the United States in August.

 `SECLUSION'

 Molina claims to have seen more than 500 children under the age of 16 who had
 serious psychological problems as a result of their or their parents' disagreement
 with the communist ideology.

 Elian will be ``immediately taken into seclusion away from the mainstream, to
 reindoctrinate him,'' Molina said in an affidavit. ``He will be indoctrinated to believe
 that in the United States he was very unhappy.''

 She added that the boy will be forced to renounce his mother, stepfather and
 Miami relatives.

 Attorney Roger Bernstein said he could not divulge details of Elian's asylum
 claim, but said the case is strong.

 ``There is no question that Elian is going to be a hero [in Cuba],'' Bernstein said.
 ``But for him to be a hero, the Castro government has to reindoctrinate him. The
 psychological harm to him in that reindoctrination is going to be huge. This notion
 that [his father] Juan Miguel is going to have control of his son's future flies in the
 face of reality.''

 `REASONABLE' FEAR

 Bernstein, a former INS asylum officer, said the evidence needed to prove a
 well-founded fear of persecution is ``relatively low.''

 He cited a Supreme Court decision in 1987 that said, ``it need not be shown that
 the situation will probably result in persecution, but it is enough that the
 persecution is a reasonable possibility.''

 Herald staff writer Andres Viglucci contributed to this report.