BY KAREN BRANCH
With fire in his voice, Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas -- a fast-rising
38-year-old
wunderkind of the National Democratic Party -- riveted national
TV audiences with
defiant words Wednesday against the federal government's handling
of the case of
6-year-old Elian Gonzalez.
``If their continued provocation in the form of unjustified threats
to revoke the boy's
parole leads to civil unrest and violence, we are holding the
federal government, and
specifically Janet Reno and the president of United States, responsible,"
Penelas said.
``It is very clear that we will not lend our respective resources
-- police or otherwise
-- to assist the federal government in any way, shape or form
to repatriate Elian
Gonzalez to Cuba."
They were harsh words words for a politician who's made no secret
of his future
ambitions for higher office one day.
Penelas portrays his statements as politically risky both in the
long run and for
his more immediate future in a fall reelection bid.
Indeed, the mayor said of about 400 calls to his office since
the news conference,
sentiment was running ``60 percent against his position."
``I would say probably it won't be helpful to me, because if you
look at where the
broader community is on this issue, most people believe Elian
should be returned
to his father," he said.
``It's not about politics. It's about how you feel."
But observers believe the strong words only boosted Penelas against
a strong
challenger, Miami-Dade Commissioner Miguel Diaz de la Portilla.
Both are
Cuban-American and popular among Hispanic voters who make up
the largest
voting bloc in the county -- 43 percent.
``It plays very well here," Penelas campaign spokesman Ric Katz said.
CHALLENGER AGREES
The challenger didn't argue with his political foe on this one.
``I think that's a reasonable position,'' Diaz de la Portilla
said of Penelas' plan.
``There are going to be some things we agree on, and this is
one."
The effect is less sure elsewhere. Nationwide polls have shown
sentiment
strongly in favor of returning Elian to his father.
But still, observers say, Penelas' position and strident words
still aren't likely to
hurt him in the national spotlight unless the Elian saga ends
with violence.
``If there isn't damage, if there isn't death, if things can get
resolved, there will be
very little national repercussions," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe,
a Los Angeles-based
political consultant and senior associate at California's Claremont
University. ``If
there is, it may not be so easy for him."
Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, a University of Pennsylvania political science
professor
based in Washington D.C. said she was ``stunned by an MSNBC report
featuring
Penelas' statement."
RISK OF VIOLENCE
If violence erupts, Tenpas believes clips of Penelas' statement
will be prominently
featured in opposition ads for his future campaigns.
On the flip side, however, is the immense amount of publicity
that has focused on
Penelas now. And most say that will only help him in his ambitions
for higher
office, whether people agree with his position or not.
``I know a lot of candidates for national office who would have
paid $5 million for
the amount of air time that Alex has received on national television
in the last 24
hours," Washington, D.C.-based pollster Rob Schroth said.
``It isn't his stand what people will remember," said political
science Prof. Carol
Kohfeld of the University of Missouri in St. Louis. ``It's his
name. They'll forget
what side he was on.''
Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University
of South Florida,
said Penelas has another issue on his side: Many states with
large immigrant
populations can relate to criticism of the federal government.
``The average person on the street loves to see someone take on
the federal
government," MacManus said. ``You take California, Texas, Arizona,
Florida,
where resources have been hurt by the federal government's failure
to implement
its own policy, so in that respect, challenging the federal government
could be a
good."
Copyright 2000 Miami Herald