BY JUAN O. TAMAYO

 Elian Gonzalez's return to his father was a rare flicker of congruence between
 Washington and Havana, but predictions of a major improvement in a landscape
 marred by 41 years of animosity are too optimistic, experts say.

 The dispute has clearly widened the gap between the small but powerful Cuban exile
 lobby that has long dominated the debate on U.S.-Cuba relations and U.S. lobbies
 pushing to ease or lift the economic embargo on Havana.

 Embargo critics have portrayed exiles during the tug of war over Elian as radical and
 ungrateful immigrants willing to defy U.S. laws to play politics with a boy who lost his
 mother during a fatal attempt to flee Cuba.

 ``The more isolated Cuban exiles become, the easier it is for the anti-embargo lobby
 to operate in Washington, said Pamela Falk, a City University of New York professor
 who is writing a book on Cuba.

 Cuban leaders in the Democratic Party noted that, for the first time in their memory,
 President Clinton failed to consult them before a major decision affecting their
 community -- the weekend raid to snatch Elian from the home of his Miami relatives
 and return him to his father.

 ``That sends a strong signal that he doesn't give a damn about us. We feel betrayed,
 said one of the Cuban exiles and Democratic Party activists who has advised Clinton
 on Cuban issues in the past.

 The first hint of any changes may come later this week, when the Senate Foreign
 Relations Committee could vote on a bill lifting all restrictions on food and medical
 sales to Havana. Although committee Chairman Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C., has
 already said he will support the bill as a ``humanitarian gesture, congressional aides
 said a wide margin of victory could be perceived as an Elian-induced boost to the
 anti-embargo forces.

 GROWING POWER

 Fidel Castro's critics say, however, that the vote will reflect only the already growing
 power of U.S. agricultural and business lobbies pushing to ease sanctions on several
 nations, including Cuba, and open new markets.

 ``You would be writing this story even if Elian had not happened, said Rep. Ileana
 Ros-Lehtinen, R-Miami. ``Traditionally, it's been the liberal left and church groups
 pushing to relax sanctions on Cuba. But now we've got Wall Street and, unfortunately,
 Main Street, trying to lift sanctions on all dictatorships.

 Analysts of U.S.-Cuba relations say Castro has also scored points with the U.S.
 government and public opinion during the Elian confrontation by keeping relations
 with Washington on an even keel even as the crisis raged on.

 ``It's remarkable that throughout this whole situation the Cuban government and
 the Clinton administration have maintained policies in place, said John Kavulich,
 head of the New York-based U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council.

 But U.S. officials and analysts say that in the long run the Elian case may have
 little impact on four decades of sour relations between Washington and Castro's
 communist government.

 The Clinton administration does not believe the Elian case will mean any change
 in U.S.-Cuba relations, State Department spokesman Jamie Rubin said Monday.
 ``We consider this issue a family problem . . . and nothing more,'' Rubin said.

 Other U.S. officials also cautioned that it's unlikely there will be any changes
 soon in the root causes of the bilateral hostility -- Cuba's lack of democracy and
 repression of dissidents.

 ``They just built a permanent protest arena in front of our Interests Section in
 Havana and we bashed them in Geneva on a U.N. resolution attacking Cuba's
 human rights abuses, said one U.S. official in Washington. ``Gee, I don't think
 this signals major changes, the official added.

 A `TRUCE'

 Castro himself said over the weekend that Elian's return to his father represented
 only a ``truce. The future, he told journalists in Havana, is likely to bring ``the
 normal life of 41 years -- attacks against us.

 The brief sparkle of U.S.-Cuba cooperation may also dim if the State Department
 decides to expel several Cuban diplomats who allegedly attacked exile protesters
 outside the Cuban diplomatic mission in Washington April 14.

 District of Columbia police are still investigating the incident, but if their report
 makes serious allegations the State Department's Office of Protocol could expel
 the Cubans.

 Analysts also note that Cuban exiles have united as never before in reaction to
 what they view as Clinton's ``betrayal.

 ``The Cuba issue is like Israel, dominated by single-issue voters, the
 congressional aide said. ``The agro-lobby may have been gaining ground, but now
 that this Elian thing has stirred the hornets' nest on the Cuban-American side
 they will fight harder than ever.

 Herald staff writer Andres Oppenheimer contributed to this report.

                     Copyright 2000 Miami Herald