By Bill Miller
                  Washington Post Staff Writer

                  Despite yesterday's court ruling keeping him in the United States for the
                  immediate future, Elian Gonzalez and his Miami relatives face formidable
                  legal obstacles in their quest to gain political asylum for the boy, according
                  to legal specialists.

                  First, they must persuade the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta
                  that the 6-year-old is entitled to an asylum hearing, despite the wishes of
                  his father, Juan Miguel Gonzalez, who wants to return the child to Cuba.
                  And even if the court rules that the Immigration and Naturalization Service
                  must consider Elian's asylum application, the request ultimately could be
                  denied for a host of reasons, the specialists said.

                  "I have thought from the beginning that the Cuban American community
                  has a lot of political and financial weight they can throw around, but they
                  have no legal claim," said David D. Cole, a law professor from
                  Georgetown University who frequently handles immigration matters. "I
                  think that the legal claim here is frivolous."

                  Cole said he was surprised that the three-judge appeals panel granted an
                  injunction yesterday barring Elian from being returned to Cuba until his
                  case is decided. He said the judges appeared more swayed by "political
                  realities" than years of legal precedents. In the end, however, Cole
                  predicted that the case will turn on the question of who has the legal right
                  to speak for Elian: the boy, his relatives, or his father.

                  Justice Department lawyers and INS officials have maintained that Elian is
                  too young to move forward with his own asylum application. In court
                  papers, they argued that Elian's great-uncle, Lazaro Gonzalez, had no
                  standing to pursue Elian's asylum claim as "next friend," even though he had
                  been caring for the youngster since the boy was rescued on Thanksgiving
                  Day after Elian's mother and nine other Cuban migrants drowned after their
                  boat capsized. The Justice Department and the INS contended that only
                  Elian's father can speak for the boy.

                  In yesterday's ruling, the appellate judges indicated that Elian might well
                  have the legal right to seek asylum on his own. They pointed to a federal
                  statute that gives "any alien who is physically present in the United States
                  or who arrives in the United States" the right to apply for asylum. They said
                  they had doubts about the INS's interpretation of that statute because
                  nothing in it says anything about age.

                  The statute's language and intent will become critical issues in briefs and
                  oral arguments. Despite their concerns about how it squares with the INS
                  actions, the judges struck a cautionary note in their opinion yesterday,
                  writing, "No one should feel confident in predicting the eventual result in
                  this case. . . . We need to think more and hard about this case for which
                  no sure and clear answers shine out today."

                  Cole said the courts typically give broad leeway to agencies such as the
                  INS on questions concerning their interpretation of the law. Under INS
                  regulations, a living parent would speak for a minor in Elian's
                  circumstances, Cole said. "I just don't see any result that would say the
                  father's wishes would be overborne here," he said.

                  After the asylum applications were filed last December, INS officials met
                  with Juan Miguel Gonzalez. They quoted the father as saying, "As for him
                  to get asylum, I am not allowing him to stay or claim any type of petition;
                  he should be returned immediately to me." They met with him again and
                  determined he was not speaking under duress, leading to their decision
                  finding the asylum applications for Elian were invalid.

                  Even if the asylum request goes forward, the legal requirements are
                  daunting.

                  Elian or his Miami relatives would be compelled to convince an INS
                  hearing officer that the boy has a "well-founded fear of persecution on
                  account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social
                  group or political opinion." The INS is anything but a rubber stamp for
                  such applications. If the hearing officer rejects the application, Elian would
                  be entitled to keep pressing the case before an immigration judge, the
                  Board of Immigration Appeals and a federal appellate court.

                  "For a child, it's extremely difficult to show that you would be subjected to
                  torture, imprisonment or detention without trial," said George R. A.
                  Doumar, a Washington lawyer who handles asylum cases. "I think the INS
                  has taken a very liberal view on asylum with respect to applications from
                  Cuba, but if you really apply the standards of asylum law, I don't believe
                  there's any way that Elian can be granted asylum. . . . His classroom is
                  waiting for him in Cuba and he's a national hero in Cuba."

                  No matter what happens next, Doumar said, the case will remain
                  fascinating to watch because of its political ramifications. "Our legal system
                  is always influenced a little bit by the political realm," he said. "But usually
                  it's a much more subtle presence than in this case, where the political
                  pressure seems unrelenting, especially from Miami."

                  Michael Maggio, another Washington immigration lawyer, said he was
                  stunned by yesterday's appellate court ruling because the 11th Circuit
                  typically rules in favor of the INS in legal disputes. "Surprised isn't the
                  word. I'm astonished," Maggio said.

                  Like Doumar, Maggio said Elian will be hard-pressed to win asylum.
                  "How is a 6-year-old boy going to show this? How is he going to show he
                  was singled out for persecution? What is the political opinion of a
                  6-year-old boy?" he asked. But if the court opens the door to an asylum
                  hearing, Maggio said, the INS administrative process moves at a "snail's
                  pace" and Elian could wind up in the United States for years.

                  Maggio said he met last week with Juan Miguel Gonzalez in an effort to
                  explain the complicated legal process to him.

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