The Miami Herald
Oct. 19, 2002

Ecuador's presidential hopefuls in 'tight fight'

  BY FRANCES ROBLES

  QUITO - Ecuadoreans take to the polls Sunday to select their next leader, and polls show that of the 11 candidates, five are in a statistical dead heat.

  ''This is a tight fight,'' pollster Santiago Nieto said. ``This has never happened here before.''

  The lack of a charismatic candidate sweeping the election reflects an apathy by an electorate weary of years of political turbulence, rising crime, inflation
  and unemployment. Unconvinced anybody can solve their economic affliction, voters here have yet to embrace any political party or person, analysts say.

  In many ways, transportation worker Galo López is the typical Ecuadorean voter: Two days before the presidential election, he doesn't much care who
  wins.

  ''I'll vote for one of the thieves like always,'' said López, a taxi driver. ``Not one candidate has a clear plan. But that doesn't matter -- nobody believes
  them anyway.''

  Former president Rodrigo Borja has risen steadily in the polls, and experts predict he will make it to a second round. Most polls show university president
  León Roldós, former coup leader Col. Lucio Gutiérrez, Congressman Xavier Neira and banana tycoon Alvaro Noboa -- no relation to current president
  Gustavo Noboa -- essentially tied for second place.

  Since no candidate captures more than 20 percent support, the election is expected to end in a Nov. 24 runoff with the two top vote-getters. With 20
  percent of the electorate still undecided in a country where voting is mandatory, who will make it to that second election is anybody's guess.

  ''Normally, three days, one week, even two weeks before the election, you know who's going to be in the second round,'' analyst Adrian Bonilla said.
  ``The electorate is tired and doesn't see huge differences in the candidates. Actually, they are excited about the race and making bets -- but they have
  no idea who is going to win.''

  The biggest surprise this campaign season has been Noboa's nose-dive in the polls. For months, the richest man in Ecuador was way ahead of the
  others, but his practice of avoiding campaign press interviews, along with rising prices for flour -- an industry he controls -- have hurt him badly. Once
  considered a shoo-in, most experts predict he will be shut out this Sunday.

  The eventual winner will take over from Gustavo Noboa the daunting task of trying to provide stability and sound economic policies to a nation that went
  through five presidents in six years. After the economy plunged two years ago, the local currency was abandoned in favor of the U.S. dollar in an attempt
  to rescue the economy. Foreign debt is a heavy burden and investment scant.

  ''After eight years of turbulence, the voters want certainty, and there isn't any,'' said Bonilla, adding that the distrust of the system favors Borja, a
  trusted elder statesman of Ecuadorean politics. 'So the voters think, `Well, Borja was president before, and at least the country didn't collapse.' ''

  Gutiérrez, a former army colonel, also benefits from the widespread disenchantment. Although Gutiérrez participated in the ouster of former president
  Jamil Mahuad two years ago, he has successfully portrayed himself as a renegade from outside the establishment who will rid the government of
  corruption.

  ''He's the only one with clean hands,'' said Consuelo Rodríguez, a maid who joined hundreds of others at a Gutiérrez closing campaign rally Thursday.
  ``People are tired of the same old thing.''

  Rodríguez said that for most people, the presidency is simply about money and jobs.

  ``There used to be a middle class in this country. Now we're all just poor.''