Fear of more political instability follows two hopefuls into runoff

  BY FRANCES ROBLES

  QUITO, Ecuador - When Ecuadorean voters pick their next president in a few weeks, they will have a choice of two candidates from the polar extremes
  of the political spectrum who have a lot in common.

  One well-to-do, the other a soldier -- and both populist outsiders who have the middle class in a nervous panic. The election creates the prospect of
  more political turbulence in the Andes, where a war is raging in Colombia, tensions are high in Venezuela, and Peru is still trying to recover from a decade
  of dictatorship.

  ''The country has chosen badly,'' said former President León Febres Cordero, head of the Social Christian Party. ``They chose two men who are not
  ready to be candidates, much less presidents. The only thing they have in common is being unprepared.''

  Former army Col. Lucio Gutiérrez and mega-rich banana mogul Alvaro Noboa will face off Nov. 24 for the second round of Ecuador's presidential elections.
  The two men were the top vote-getters in a field of 11 aspirants that included an ex-president and two former vice presidents. Once 96 percent of the
  vote was counted, Gutiérrez had 20.32 percent and Noboa 17.39.

  Voters shunned old-time politicians and trusted leaders in favor of two political newcomers who appealed to the struggling classes. Now the nation will
  choose from a military officer supported by the leading Marxist party, and the richest man in the country who owns leading stakes in the nation's leading
  industries. Although the two men are vastly different, experts say the working classes that voted for them deliberately sought to shut out traditional
  party players.

  ''Picking between them is going to be very complicated,'' said political analyst Fabián Corral. ``The middle class is in a period of meditation -- and stress.''

  The next month promises to be quite a slugfest, as each candidate tries to win over more than 60 percent of the electorate that chose neither of them
  the first time around. Noboa has already started swinging, calling Gutiérrez a ``Chinese communist.''

  ''I am going to tell the Ecuadorean people that they have two choices: the communism that Lucio Gutiérrez represents . . . and jobs, health and economic
  reactivation, which I represent,'' Noboa said.

  Gutiérrez admits being an admirer of Venezuela's Hugo Chávez, but experts say the Ecuadorean candidate is not only far more sensible than his
  Venezuelan counterpart, but won't have the kind of support in Congress to wreak havoc on the nation.

  Gutiérrez is best known for being one of three men who briefly replaced former President Jamil Mahuad after a coup two years ago. Arrested for his role
  in the president's ouster, Gutiérrez spent six months in the brig and was booted from the armed forces.

  ''People are tired of the same old corrupt politicians,'' he said. 'Most have reached the point where they said, `enough!' ''

  The former colonel gained wide popularity among the poor for his anti-corruption crusade, including advocating a fourth power of state to investi

  gate dishonest politicians.

  He describes himself as ''center-left,'' opposes privatization, but has not advocated doing away with the nation's use of the U.S. dollar as its sole
  currency.

  Experts were already speculating Sunday on what impact a Gutiérrez victorywould have on markets and capital flight.

  ''He fits the profile of a leftist, but he is very cautious with respect to what would happen to the economy if he starts making scandalous
  announcements,'' Corral said. ``He understands extremist talk will hurt him.''

  Noboa is also hugely popular among the poor, largely because of his practice of delivering free medicine to the needy.

  Analysts say his ideas are thin and his potential for conflict of interest huge.

  Critics say Noboa, the former president of the Central Bank, abused his position to swindle his relatives out of an inheritance. He's currently being sued
  by most of his siblings.

  ''People are more afraid of Gutiérrez, but more distrustful of Noboa,'' said Adrian Bonilla, a political scientist. ``The financial community is in a panic.''

  What's also clear is that the two men, lacking strong party backing, would have a terrible time getting support in a fractured Congress.

  It's unclear whether any of the losing candidates will endorse them.

  ''They picked the worst two,'' said Xavier Neira, a congressman who placed fifth in Sunday's race. ``And now Ecuadoreans are going to have to pay.''