The Miami Herald
May 17, 2000
Lecturer predicts loss of Cuban Americans


 Ask Irving Louis Horowitz about Miami, post-Elian, and the soft-spoken sociology
 and political science professor from Rutgers University imagines a city with fewer
 Cuban Americans and more community apathy.

 Horowitz, lecturing at Florida International University's Graham Center Ballroom
 on Tuesday night, predicted that Miami will lose about 20 percent of its
 Cuban-American population to the rest of the country.

 The diaspora into the American mainstream, he said, will be pushed in part by a
 disillusionment with a divided city that no longer feels like home.

 ``I know this goes against the grain -- that the Elian case has united the
 Cuban-American community,'' said the exile advocate and author of Cuban

 He said the rifts, both global and personal, will live on as Cuban Americans
 remember how specific individuals, including family members, aligned themselves
 during the crisis.

 He said Cuban Americans in Miami are reconsidering what it means to be
 ``American.'' This reevaluation means taking on a harsher, more realistic view of
 their place in the country, he said. The fact that many will vote Republican in
 November is ``just the tip of the iceberg.''

 ``Cuban Americans will vote with their feet and join different parts of America,'' he

 Horowitz told the audience of 40 -- students, professionals and older couples --
 that the unifying cause of dismantling the Castro regime is no longer a motivating
 force for younger generations. That will be another force pushing them away from
 South Florida, he said.

 Commenting on their assimilation into the United States, he said it was unlikely
 that many Cuban Americans would ever move back to Cuba, comparing it to the
 probability of blacks making a mass exodus to Africa or for Jews packing it up
 and moving to Israel.

 ``Future Cuban Americans will be more critical of the United States, but also
 more integrated in the country.

 ``Cuba will be a nice place to visit.''

                     Copyright 2000 Miami Herald