Mandatory evacuations help island nation brace for arrival of 'monster'

By TRACEY EATON / The Dallas Morning News

HAVANA – Hurricane Ivan rumbled toward western Cuba on Sunday as authorities evacuated the last of nearly 2 million people in its destructive path.

The hurricane, the most powerful to threaten the island in 50 years, has killed at least 60 people since it began its deadly romp through the Caribbean last week.

It swirled toward central Cuba last week, menacing the resort town of Varadero, heart of the island's $2 billion tourist trade. Then it took aim for Havana, the country's soul, historic colonial capital and home to more than 2.2 million people.

By early Sunday evening, Ivan was veering north, and Cuba's chief hurricane forecaster, Jose Rubiera, said there was only a 30 percent chance that the eye of the storm would hit the western province of Pinar del Rio, with a population of 713,100.

Still, Cuban President Fidel Castro warned in a marathon, five-hour television appearance late Saturday: "We can't let our guard down for even a minute. There are still many hours in which this monster can do many unpredictable things."

Ivan, the sixth-strongest Atlantic storm on record, was packing sustained winds of 150 mph and stronger gusts early Sunday evening. It remains "extremely dangerous" and could have a "devastating impact" on Cuba before heading north, the National Hurricane Center said.

"This storm is a freak. It could be catastrophic," said Joaquin Rodriguez, 48, a chef who watched as waves crashed into the Malecon, Havana's famed seaside highway. "But I'm not afraid. Our government knows what it's doing."

Other Cubans feared the worst and rushed to stock up on bottled water, bread, canned ham, flashlight batteries and candles.

By early Sunday evening, Cuban authorities had evacuated 1,757,005 people, including 333,468 students and 7,186 tourists. Most took refuge with friends, family and relatives.

Many in Havana were evacuated from upper-floor apartments. Some buildings were cleared entirely for fear that they may collapse during the storm.

As it is, many of Havana's centuries-old buildings are in bad shape. Wooden planks and boards jammed against the outside walls of some buildings are all that prevent them from tumbling down. Despite such measures, some buildings regularly collapse, killing or injuring their occupants even when the skies are clear. So hurricanes are a great peril.

When Hurricane Charley swept through Cuba on Aug. 13, it wiped out two fishing villages, destroyed 8,300 homes, knocked out electricity for nearly 2.5 million people and devastated banana, mango and avocado trees. Five people – along with scores of cattle, goats, pigs and more than 30,000 chickens – were killed. And the damage topped $1 billion, authorities said.

Charley, with 102 mph winds, was only a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Ivan is much bigger – and stronger. It churned out Category 5 winds of 165 mph Saturday before slowing a bit Sunday.

Category 5 hurricanes, with winds topping 155 mph, are rare. Only three, including Andrew in 1992, are known to have hit the United States.

Even at Category 4, Ivan is dangerous. Forecasters expect coastal surges of 20 to 25 feet along Cuba's southwestern coast, at least 8 inches of rain and dangerous, battering waves.

With no flights expected in or out of the country until at least Tuesday, thousands of tourists are stranded, including 800 who were evacuated from hotels in Varadero, a beach resort east of Havana.

Italian tourist Avesani Nireo resettled in Havana's majestic 74-year-old Hotel Nacional, overlooking the Atlantic Ocean.

"I feel very safe here," he said. "Hurricanes haven't knocked over this hotel before. I don't think they'll do it now."

Cuban officials say they're pushing to prevent any loss of life.

International Red Cross officials have praised Cuba's civil defense system, saying that even as Hurricane Michelle ravaged the island in November 2001, damaging or destroying 25,000 homes, only one person was killed.

Experts say there are fewer hurricane deaths in Cuba than in Florida, where a third of all fatalities occur after residents refused to leave mobile homes.

In Cuba, evacuations are mandatory.

"I don't care whether it's called socialism or good governance," researcher Ben Wisner wrote after Hurricane Michelle. "This island has lessons for the rest of the Caribbean and the hemisphere."

Winds of change
Cuban authorities revamped their civil defense system after Hurricane Flora devastated the island in October 1963. The storm killed more than 1,000 people and was so powerful it changed the course of the Cauto River.

Since then, hurricane deaths in Cuba have become increasingly uncommon. Just 16 people died during six major hurricanes from 1996 to 2002.

Cubans say they have learned to live with storms. And some historians believe that hurricanes have shaped Cuban culture.

"Historians focus a great deal on what people do together, but now and then, the forces of nature overwhelm a culture and affect how cultures become what they are," University of North Carolina professor Louis Perez Jr. told an interviewer in June.

"What makes the French the French? What makes Americans Americans? One factor is environment – weather patterns, famine, harsh climates," said Mr. Perez, author of Winds of Change: Hurricanes and the Transformation of Nineteenth-Century Cuba. "These cultures begin to adapt to the possibility of catastrophe and to assimilate the peril into their everyday lives."