By TIM JOHNSON
             Herald Staff Writer

             SAN VICENTE DEL CAGUAN, Colombia -- Ironically, on the eve of historic
             talks to end a sweeping and lengthy guerrilla conflict, Colombia's military and
             Marxist rebels are preparing intensely for more war.

             Both sides are bolstering their forces, plotting new strategies and bracing
             themselves in case the first peace talks in seven years fizzle.

             For now, though, all attention is on a historic meeting slated for Thursday between
             President Andres Pastrana and guerrilla leader Manuel ``Sure Shot'' Marulanda in
             this Scorched ranching town near the Andes.

             No sitting president has ever met face-to-face with Marulanda, a grizzled peasant
             with a fifth-grade education. Perhaps the oldest and most experienced guerrilla
             leader in the world, Marulanda has led his Revolutionary Armed Forces of
             Colombia (FARC) over more than three decades to become a formidable
             15,000-member army active in nearly every part of the country.

             Marulanda and his rebel followers demand reforms of Colombia's political and
             judicial systems, and a total revamping of the military. For his part, Pastrana wants
             to end a bloody guerrilla war that is taking about 3,000 lives a year.

             Invited to the opening are a host of diplomats and authorities from Guatemala,
             Spain, Cuba and Norway, and Nobel Peace laureate Rigoberta Menchu.

             ``It's possible that these conversations will fail and we'll enter another period of
             military confrontation,'' said Alejo Vargas, deputy rector of the National
             University. ``I'd put the possibility at 50 percent.''

             Pastrana has staked his presidency on serious peace talks. Weeks before taking
             office last August, he met with Marulanda. Some believe he owes his electoral
             triumph to a FARC endorsement of his peace strategy that won over key
             undecided voters.

             `Believes in the process'

             ``He viscerally believes in the process. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but he believes
             in it,'' said a Colombian involved in the talks who often disagrees with Pastrana.

             Once the talks begin, Pastrana and Marulanda will leave negotiations to their
             respective delegations.

             Immediate obstacles are expected. No peace agenda has yet been established,
             Colombian society appears far from tackling the serious issues the guerrillas want
             addressed, and a large sector of the FARC appears interested in the peace talks
             only as a tactical way to gain strength.

             ``Right now, two tendencies have appeared in the guerrillas: Those who want war,
             and those who want peace,'' said the Rev. Leonel Narvaez, a Roman Catholic
             priest who has met frequently with guerrilla commanders over the last decade. ``It
             is a fight between generations.''
             Rebel wants peace

             After nearly four decades with a rifle in hand, Marulanda, who is either 68 or 71,
             is believed to be nearly as interested in peace as Pastrana, and far more than some
             of his younger combatants.

             ``If Marulanda died right now, there would be an internal war. Marulanda knows
             that they would be killing each other,'' said Narvaez.

             It is Marulanda's right-hand man, Jorge ``Mono Jojoy'' Briceño, who appears to
             lead the hard-liners. During a three-month demilitarization of a 16,200-square-mile
             area around this town that began Nov. 7, the hard-liners have been beefing up
             their troops.

             ``They continue to recruit. For example, they tell families that they have to give up
             a son or daughter to the cause. They say everyone must learn to bear arms,''
             Narvaez said.

             Guerrilla commanders from other parts of the country flock to the demilitarized
             region for tactical, combat and terrorism training, unafraid of army retaliation,
             Narvaez said.

             Slightly mocking a FARC slogan that a ``Laboratory of Peace'' has been created
             in the huge demilitarized zone of five townships, including San Vicente del Caguan,
             Narvaez said: ``This is as much a laboratory of war as it is a laboratory of peace.''

             Military retrains

             While FARC combatants retrain, so does the 146,000-man Colombian military.
             Defense Minister Rodrigo Lloreda, an avowed skeptic of the talks, has pulled the
             army back to fewer bases and decreased reliance on teenage conscripts.

             ``It is evident that there is not only a process of professionalizing the armed forces
             but a strengthening of elite brigades, of mobile counter-insurgency battalions and
             the incorporation of new technology,'' said Vargas, the deputy university rector.
             ``That is where the role of the United States has begun to become worrisome for
             Colombian analysts.''

             U.S. assistance to Colombia has tripled this year to $280 million, most of it for
             counter-narcotics aid. FARC commanders, many of whom are deeply enmeshed
             in the drug trade, see the increased aid as U.S. intervention.

             Vargas said that if talks fail, the FARC may resort to new terrorism, specifically in
             urban areas and against targets linked to the United States.

             In some ways, the talks will be a race against the clock.

             Soldiers out of zone

             Pastrana has agreed to keep soldiers out of the Switzerland-size demilitarized zone
             until Feb. 7, and many in Washington are urging him to send the troops back after
             the deadline.

             But few major accomplishments are expected in only one month of talks, and a
             prolonging of the demilitarized zone appears nearly certain.

             Moreover, while Pastrana feels pressure to achieve some immediate and clear
             reciprocity for concessions already made to the FARC, analysts say insurgent
             leaders plan to dally.

             ``What the FARC most want is to let it drag on. What they most want is a
             government pressed for time,'' said the Colombian official, noting that rebels want
             the Pastrana administration in as weak a negotiating posture as possible.

             The FARC has issued a list of 10 key areas it wants addressed in the talks,
             including land and military reform, and reorientation of the state in profound ways.

             While Pastrana's aides study the issues seriously, much of the rest of Colombia's
             ruling elite has dismissed the possible reforms.

             ``The leaders -- both political and in the business class -- think you can buy off the
             guerrillas with a car, a house and a school loan,'' said Francisco Leal, a political
             analyst at the University of the Andes. ``They aren't thinking about ceding real
             economic or political power to the guerrillas.''

             A wide divide

             Vargas said the chasm between an insulated ruling class and a FARC leadership
             seeking deep reforms could eventually sink the talks.

             ``They [FARC leaders] are willing to negotiate. They have repeated this, both
             formally and informally, publicly and privately. But they won't negotiate at any
             cost. They want profound reforms of our political system,'' Vargas said.

             The success of the talks ultimately may boil down to how Pastrana and Marulanda
             hit it off, and their willingness to drag followers through obstacles, said Javier
             Munera, a social activist.

             ``They've got to look each other in the face, in the eyes, and understand each
             other's reality,'' he said.
 

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