One or two decades ago, Serra could rest assured that the government's so-called
                 "machine" -- an octopus-like structure of state firms and local influence with
                 tentacles stretching across the country -- would garner votes for him.

                 But as Serra struggles to erode a 20 percentage point lead held by leftist
                 front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva before the Oct. 6 vote, it is clear that the
                 government's machine has lost much of its punch, analysts say.

                 "The machine is debilitated. Serra is not benefiting," said Tom Eisenlohr, a
                 consultant in political marketing who coordinated the campaign of Tancredo Neves,
                 elected president at the end of Brazil's 1964-1985 dictatorship.

                 Until the 1990s, the government's political machine ensured victory for its chosen
                 contender. Public funds and vehicles were used at rallies and hefty state spending in
                 the press guaranteed the media's support.

                 Since then, Brazil's economy has opened up with a string of state asset sales and an
                 influx of foreign investors.

                 "Privatizations have not only reduced the State's economic power, but also its
                 political power," said Walter Goes, president of the Brazilian Institute of Political
                 Studies.

                 Voters, the media and political institutions that monitor potential vote buying have
                 also matured.

                 Serra, though, is reaping little benefit of being the candidate of outgoing President
                 Fernando Henrique Cardoso. And the machine at times has even appeared to work
                 against him.

                 State oil giant Petrobras, in a move unthinkable in the past, raised the price of
                 gasoline and cooking gas earlier this year, mystifying Serra's camp.

                 In July, Cardoso stepped in and asked the National Petroleum Agency to intervene
                 in cooking gas, which led to a sharp drop in prices. The government denied the
                 move was linked to the election.

                 Analysts say it is not impossible that Lula could win in the first round, something
                 previously seen as unthinkable, although the more likely scenario is an October 27
                 run-off. To win in the first round a candidate must get 50 percent of the vote.

                  Copyright 2002 Reuters. All rights reserved.